Super Bowl LVIII Passing Props

Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy are ready to lead their respective teams into battle in Super Bowl 58. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, where Mahomes was largely kept in check and Purdy was taking classes at Iowa State after his junior season came to an end.

Let’s check out the Super Bowl 58 passing props and compare where those lines are to the season averages for Mahomes and Purdy. Mahomes was the Super Bowl MVP back in 2020 and he’ll be looking to take down the award once again.

 

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Patrick Mahomes

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Feb. 3, 10:15 a.m. PT

Lines listed with vig as (Over/Under)

Passing Yards: 259.5 (-125/-105)

Season average: 261.4

Passing TD: 1.5 (-160/+124)

Season average: 1.69

Pass Completions: 25.5 (-105/-125)

Season average: 25.1

Pass Attempts: 36.5 (-110/-120)

Season average: 37.3

Interceptions: 0.5 (-115/-115)

Season average: 0.88

Passing + Rushing Yards: 289.5 (-115/-115)

Season average: 285.7

Longest completion: 35.5 (-120/-110)

Despite all of the talk about the weapons at Mahomes’ disposal, he posted the best regular season completion percentage of his career at 67.2% and sits at 68% here in the postseason. That is actually the worst playoff showing for Mahomes over the last three years, which is crazy to think about, but he hasn’t thrown an interception for the second straight postseason.

The Chiefs do have the potential to run the ball a lot because the 49ers are stronger against the pass than they are against the run, but you still want the ball in 15’s hands as much as possible and I imagine he’ll be making a lot of safe, responsible, veteran throws.

Look here for Patrick Mahomes passing props and Super Bowl 58 NFL Picks.

Brock Purdy

Passing Yards: 244.5 (-115/-115)

Season average: 267.5

Passing TD: 1.5 (-125/+105)

Season average: 1.94

Pass Completions: 20.5 (-125/-105)

Season average: 19.3

Pass Attempts: 31.5 (+100/-130)

Season average: 27.8

Interceptions: 0.5 (-115/-115)

Season average: 0.69

Passing + Rushing Yards: 260.5 (-115/-115)

Season average: 276.5

Longest completion: 37.5 (+100/-130)

When thinking about Purdy props, keep in mind that the 49ers allowed the fifth-most plays per drive during the regular season and that was while finishing second in the NFL in TO%. The 49ers defense may have as much to do with Purdy’s number of chances as Kyle Shanahan’s game-plan will.

It is also interesting to see the Mahomes prop lines very close to his season averages, whereas Purdy’s are a little bit elevated. He had 39 pass attempts against the Packers and 31 against the Lions, which were both above his season averages, so maybe there is a little bit of recency bias in the equation here.

Look here for Brock Purdy passing props and Super Bowl 58 NFL Picks.

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