Tonight Week 4 of the NFL regular season wraps up with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 37)

The Titans (0-3) just got rolled by the Packers 30-14, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Dolphins (1-2) just fell to the Seahawks 24-3, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Miami listed as a 2-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw the line drop to a pick’em when it was unclear who the Dolphins would start at quarterback. However, once it was announced that Tyler Huntley would start under center for Miami it has been nothing but sharp Dolphins buyback, driving Miami back up to -2.5. Most shops are juicing up Dolphins -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further game day rise up to the key number of 3. Essentially, all late movement and liability is breaking back toward Miami at home. This movement is also notable because the public doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them and spread bets are split right down the middle. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because theoretically the oddsmakers have balanced action and no reason to adjust the number. So, based on the line move to Miami we can infer that smart money is backing the home team laying short chalk. Miami is only receiving 49% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor. Those looking to follow the smart Dolphins money but wary of laying points around a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead target Miami on the moneyline at -145.

We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from 39.5 to 37. The under is only receiving 50% of bets but 61% of dollars, further evidence of the larger, sharper wagers playing the under. Primetime unders are 8-5 this season and 168-112 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for low 80s with partly cloudy skies and 5-7 MPH winds at Hard Rock Stadium.

8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4, 47)

The Seahawks (3-0) just brushed aside the Dolphins 24-3, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (2-1) just outlasted the Cardinals 20-13, covering as 3-point road favorites.

This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Lions at home. However, despite receiving 67% of spread bets we’ve seen the Lions fall from -4.5 to -4. We even saw this line dip down to -3.5 at times throughout the week. Essentially, all movement and liability has been toward Seattle plus the points, who are receiving sharp reverse line movement. The Seahawks are only receiving 33% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game, offering notable contrarian value. Dogs getting 4-points or more are 19-9 ATS (68%) with a 29% ROI this season. Road dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%) this season and 528-442 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 125-98 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Geno Smith is 11-8 ATS (58%) as a dog with the Seahawks. Those looking to bet against the public and take the Seahawks would be wise to wait for or shop around for a hook, as several shops are juicing up the Lions -4 (-115), signaling a possible game day rise up to -4.5. Dan Campbell is 0-3 against Seattle since he became the head coach of the Lions.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 47 despite 61% of bets taking the over. This indicates wiseguy reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. Primetime unders are 8-5 this season and 168-112 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. When the total is 47 or more, primetime unders are 4-1 this season and 24-9 (73%) with a 39% ROI since 2022.

Player Props to Consider

De’Von Achane over 25.5 receiving yards (-110): Achane has gone over this number in all three games this season, finishing with 76 receiving yards in Week 1 against Jacksonville, 69 receiving yards in Week 2 against Buffalo and 28 receiving yards in Week 3 against Seattle. With Huntley making his first start for Miami, he might be inclined to make easy check down or dump off passes to Achane as he gets acclimated into a new system.

DK Metcalf over 65.5 receiving yards (-110): Metcalf has gone over this number in two straight games, finishing with 129 receiving yards in Week 2 against New England and 104 receiving yards in Week 3 against Miami. Detroit is ranked 21st in passing yards allowed per game (217). The Seahawks are a dog in a high total game, which means they will likely have to score to keep pace or be the beneficiary of “garbage” yards late if they’re trailing and must focus on the passing game.

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