Tuley’s Takes: NFL Week 5

October 4, 2023

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Week 5 picks from a "dog or pass" point of view"

As I wrote in the college football version of “Tuley’s Takes” last week, winning on CFB Saturdays and NFL Sundays is hard. The gambling gods are like that.

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So, after going 3-0 ATS with my college plays on Saturday, it wasn’t a surprise that we took a step back at 2-3 ATS in the NFL on Sunday (and Monday). We lost with the Dolphins +3, Raiders +5.5 and Cardinals +14 – though the Raiders and Cardinals had their chances to cover, so we don’t regret those plays as much as the Dolphins – but won with the Commanders +8 on Sunday and the Seahawks +1 on Monday Night Football.

For our record-keeping purposes here, we’re still 12-8 ATS (60%) through four weeks, and that’s our same record with our @ViewFromVegas entry in the Circa Sports Million contest here in Las Vegas. I did sub in the Texans +3 in the Westgate SuperContest because the Dolphins were only +2.5 at Circa, so I had a winning week there at 3-2 and stand at 13-7 ATS (65%).

But we had a losing NFL week overall here and in our pocket as the Packers and Dolphins killed most of our 2-team, 6-point teasers, though we did cut our losses a little by adding other teasers with the Texans, Buccaneers and Titans. It was understandable that we had a rough go of it as favorites went 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS as the general public had a better week against the sportsbooks. So, all things considered, I’m not too upset with how we fared overall.

Anyway, we hope we learned a lot from what we saw last weekend and can get back on the winning track with the NFL Week 5 card, which has just 14 games with four teams (Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers and Seahawks) on an early-season bye week.

For those new to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those in contests where you have to pick every game.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6)

Let’s face it: This isn’t the most appealing matchup for Thursday Night Football. This line opened at Washington -1.5 when the schedule was released on May 11 and was up to -5.5 on the advance line last week and re-opened at -6 this past Sunday. Early bettors steamed it to Washington -7 on Monday, and I was starting to think that was an overadjustment, and I might have to consider taking the Bears as touchdown underdogs.

I was actually relieved when the line was bet down to 6 and even 5.5 at some books as I can now pass on the Bears, who are 0-3-1 ATS and again vying for the No. 1 draft pick (actually, possibly the first two draft picks as they own the Panthers’ No. 1 from their trade earlier this year). Still, bet the Commanders with caution as they’re in that “underdog turned favorite” situation.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday game).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

London, England

The Jaguars should really be listed as the home team here as the franchise is playing its 11th game in London (more than twice as many as any other NFL team) and the first to play back-to-back weeks there. They stayed over the pond after beating the Falcons 23-7 last Sunday. I’m tempted to take them here, but the number is a little too short to my liking after the Bills have won their last three games by 28 or more points after their ugly Week 1 loss at the Jets.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

Speaking of the Falcons, they don’t have the benefit of a bye week after their London trip and are short home favorites against the upstart Texans. Houston’s CJ Stroud lost to fellow first-round draft pick Anthony Richardson in Week 2, but he’s now the +175 favorite at DraftKings for Offensive Rookie of the Year after his performances in upsets of the Jaguars and Steelers in the last two weeks.

Both those teams are better than the Falcons, so I believe we have a case of the wrong team being favored here. In addition, I saw an interesting stat that Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is 0-8 in first halves in his short career, so also give me the Texans +0.5 in the first half as well as teasers.

Best Bet: Texans +2, plus 2-team, 6-point teaser on Texans +8/Saints +7 or preferably +7.5 (pool play: Texans 65/35 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

I’m not totally throwing the Panthers in the trash bin, and I’m sure I’ll back them at some point this season when getting a ton of points (they’re 0-3-1 ATS as they did get a push in their 20-17 loss to the Saints in one of Week 2’s Monday night games)), but I can’t pull the trigger here. The Lions should be well-rested after beating the Packers 34-20 a week ago Thursday. I’m just bummed that the oddsmakers have jacked this number higher as the Lions would be a prime teaser play at -8.5 (and, no, I’m not paying the extra juice to do a 7-point teaser).

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 90/10 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans (-1) at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were favored in this matchup since the schedule came out and were still -1 when the Week 5 lines were reposted Sunday night, but now we’ve seen a change of favorites with the Titans now -1. The market is clearly reacting to the Titans running over the Bengals 27-3. This is another teaser opportunity that has disappeared (unless you like the Colts) as I would love to have the Titans teased up over a TD. We’ll monitor this line in case it flips back (perhaps if Jonathan Taylor returns for Indy?), but otherwise, we’re passing.

Best Bet: Pass (play: Titans 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-11)

Oh, boy. Regular readers know I have a hard time passing up double-digit underdogs, though they’re not the automatic play they used to be as even I admit there’s a wider gap between the best and worst teams in the modern NFL than there used to be. Case in point: Double-digit dogs are just 1-3 ATS this season, though we should have covered with the Cardinals +14 at the 49ers on Sunday.

The Giants have already failed in this role with their 30-12 loss at the 49ers in Week 3, and there was nothing we saw in their 24-3 loss to the Seahawks on Monday night to give us hope they can stay within two scores of the Dolphins, who should also bounce back from their blowout loss to the Bills.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1)

Even though the Saints were blown out 26-9 by the Buccaneers, we think the oddsmakers and the market have the wrong team favored here like the Falcons and the Colts just because the Patriots are the home team. Since the 2020 pandemic, I’ve written dozens of times at VSiN that home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be in just about all American team sports, yet we feel oddsmakers and the public still give too much weight to hosts (note: don’t remind me of this when I take some home dogs later in the rotation!).

Anyway, Alvin Kamara should be more involved in his second game, and I expect the Saints to pull the minor upset, and everyone will be wondering afterward why they were the dog.

Best Bet: Saints +1, plus 2-team, 6-point teaser with Saints +7/Texans +8 (pool play: Saints 67/33 in all SU and ATS contests).

Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Most people see these teams moving in opposite directions, especially after the Ravens ran over the Browns 28-3 and the Steelers were upset 30-6 by the Texans. The line reflects that. The Ravens were -2.5 on the advanced line last week and have passed through the key number of 3 up to a solid 4 as of Wednesday afternoon.

However, Mike Tomlin always gets his team up for this rivalry, and the Steelers should keep it close whether Kenny Pickett is able to go or if they have to turn to Mitch Trubisky. In fact, the last six games in this series have been decided by 5 points or less, so we expect this to come down to a field goal and the Steelers to at least cover the inflated spread.

Best Bet: Steelers +4 (pool play: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, though Ravens still 60/40 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Last week, I wrote how we lost some line on the Texans vs. the Steelers after the Texans upset the Jaguars the week before: “…the price you pay when that happens is losing value on a team like this moving forward.” Well, that’s happening with the Cardinals as they continue to be more competitive than anyone expected. When the schedule was released on May 11, this line was Bengals -7.5 and was still there last week.

However, after the Cards played well again before falling to the 49ers (and the Bengals lost 27-3 to the Titans), the line was re-opened Sunday at Bengals -5 and has been bet down to -3 as of early Wednesday afternoon with several books already charging -120 for Cardinals +3. As bad as the Bengals have been playing to start the season, I still can’t take the short number on Arizona, but I will take the Cardinals up over a TD as my top teaser play in the kickoffs in the 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT hour.

Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Cardinals +9 (+8.5 acceptable)/Jets +7.5 (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests but flip to Bengals 55/45 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles are one of only two NFL teams at 4-0 along with the 49ers, though they’re only 2-1-1 ATS (2-2 ATS if you got the Vikings +7 or +6.5 against them in Week 2’s Thursday nighter) after failing to cover in Sunday’s 34-31 overtime win vs. the Commanders. They’re still not playing as well as last year, and I was happy to fade them with the Commanders and will do it again with the Rams here.

The Rams have been more competitive than expected and are actually 2-0-2 ATS vs. closing numbers with pushes in the losses to the 49ers and Bengals. They only lost to the 49ers by 7, and I’m counting on them getting in another shootout here that could very well come down to a field goal.

Best Bet: Rams +4.5 (pool play: Rams 60/40 in ATS contests, though Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

I almost want to say again that the wrong team is favored here as the Broncos only won their first game of the season 31-28 over the Bears after looking like they were going to lose again. Meanwhile, the Jets have beaten the Bills (even after Zach Wilson had to replace Aaron Rodgers) and were right there against the Chiefs at 20-20 on Sunday night after trailing 17-0 before losing 23-20.

Like the Texans last week, this might be another underdog I add to my portfolio closer to the weekend (and maybe play in my contests if I don’t get the lines I want on some of my other Best Bets), but for now I feel the best way to play it is in teasers.

Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Jets +7.5/Cardinals +8.5 or better) (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contest but Broncos at lukewarm 55/45 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The line move in this game is interesting as it was Chiefs -6 last week on the advanced line. The Vikings finally earned their first win, though it was against the lowly Panthers, so we wouldn’t expect that to move the needle. Meanwhile, the Chiefs beat the Jets 23-20 on Sunday night.

Maybe the line has dropped as bettors are less willing to lay points with the Chiefs as they realize they don’t care about covering spreads after Patrick Mahomes slid down short of a potential spread-covering TD (note for regular followers: this was just another example of why we feel there’s real value in the “dog-or-pass” approach as a favorites’ goal is to win the game and not necessarily to cover for you).

I don’t see the KC defense having an answer for Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson as this should again be a close game that the Chiefs will likely win, but I’ll take the points with the home dog, though admittedly this might be the first game I might sub out in my contests if only offered +4 or I get a better line with another play.

Best Bet: Vikings +4.5 (pool play: Vikings 60/40 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

This Sunday nighter is Week 5’s marquee game with the undefeated 49ers hosting the Cowboys in a rematch of San Fran’s 19-13 win in the divisional playoffs last season. This should be another dogfight with a battle over every point. Both offenses are potent, but I lean to the Under 45 here as it should be a playoff atmosphere and a tight game. I would probably pass at +3, but getting the hook could be huge.

Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Monday nighter is a letdown compared to Sunday night. The line was Raiders -1.5 when the schedule was announced back in May but has flipped to the Packers being favored after their 2-2 while the Raiders are 1-3 with three straight losses after their Week 1 win over the Broncos (which doesn’t look as impressive now with how the Broncos have played). I would be tempted to take the Raiders in some teasers as they had their chances to win or at least cover against the Chargers on Sunday, but they continue to commit stupid penalties, and we can’t trust Josh McDaniels and his in-game decisions.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Packers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).