MLB Best Bets Today July 22:
With the All-Star Break not that far in the rearview, we have a very busy Monday on the diamond. Weather permitting, 26 of the league’s 30 teams will take the field, so there are a lot of games to get through on the card. As I said on Saturday, pitchers are all coming off of long layoffs thanks to the All-Star Break, so you’ll want to handicap accordingly.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 22:
Philadelphia Phillies (-118, 8) at Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET
The Twins have another interleague series coming out of the Break as they entertain the NL-leading Phillies. It will be Bailey Ober for the home team and Ranger Suarez for the visitors in this one.
Ober comes in with a 4.14 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. I took some time looking at his game logs today and a few things stand out. The first is that he’s gotten pretty fortunate with where his turns in the rotation have landed. He’s faced the paltry Tigers offense three times and Chicago twice, despite struggling a bit in both of those starts. He’s also caught Seattle twice. And, yet, with quite a few fortunate calendar spots, he’s got an ERA north of 4.
The Phillies have been consistently good on offense all season long and everybody is healthy now, as JT Realmuto returned to begin the second half and Bryce Harper has been back for a little while. Philadelphia needs some bench help, but the starting lineup is in good hands overall and everybody should play today against the right-handed Ober.
I’m also looking at Minnesota’s bullpen and they struggled in the series against the Brewers as they got back into things. Also, Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala have worked back-to-back days, so they’re likely unavailable.
On the Suarez side of things, he hit the skids going into the Break with 15 runs allowed on 22 hits in his last three starts, but I think he simply needed a breather. His 114 innings in the first half were nearly as many as he threw during all of last season (125), so I think he just ran out of gas a bit. He’s a case where I believe extra rest helps.
He’s an extreme ground ball guy at 53.6% and is extremely stingy with home runs, which isn’t a good matchup for the Minnesota offense in my opinion. Add in a more rested bullpen and it’s a play that I like for today.
Pick: Phillies -118
Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals (-155, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks and Royals battle it out at Kauffman Stadium in interleague action with Yilber Diaz and Cole Ragans set to go for their respective teams. Diaz, who was the No. 6 prospect for Arizona coming into the season per FanGraphs, made two starts before the All-Star Break and allowed one run on four hits in each of them over six innings. He struck out seven and walked three. Diaz is a guy with outstanding stuff and he started the season in Double-A before four starts at Triple-A.
Diaz missed a lot of bats in the minors and hasn’t quite done that at the MLB level yet, but I’m excited about what we’ve seen so far and feel like he’s going to be effective today. The Royals are a pretty aggressive team, which should cut down on Diaz’s walk issues.
Arizona has been one of the better offenses in baseball over the last couple of months and they’ve been good against lefties all season. The D-Backs are sixth in wOBA at .332 with a 114 wRC+ in that split. Ragans has obviously been one of the top lefties in the league this season with a 3.16 ERA and a 2.66 FIP, but Arizona is an aggressive lineup that could neutralize Ragans’ main strength, which is generating strikeouts.
The Diamondbacks don’t swing and miss a lot. Ragans has basically allowed a league average Hard Hit% and has a .303 BABIP against, so when teams make contact, I don’t think he’s as effective.
Arizona’s bullpen had a long weekend, but I think they’re live to win the 1st 5 here with Diaz’s upside and the matchup that they have against Ragans.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 (+135)
