MLB Best Bets Today October 15:
Only one game is on the MLB slate for today, as we’ll see Game 2 between the Guardians and Yankees. With the early start yesterday in the NLCS, the Dodgers and Mets were able to get a head start on flying to the East Coast. It is an off day, but it is more of a travel day, as the teams get set for Game 3. It is actually the first time the Dodgers have gone further than Denver since they were in Atlanta and Miami from September 13-19.
Anyway, this is about Guardians vs. Yankees Game 2 and what could happen in tonight’s tilt. It’ll be Tanner Bibee for Cleveland and Gerrit Cole for New York.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 15:
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (-175, 7)
7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/TruTV)
The Guardians lost Game 1 and it got away from them in the third inning when rookie Joey Cantillo got thrown into a very rough spot. He entered with the bases loaded after Alex Cobb walked righty Anthony Volpe, setting up Cantillo to face the left-handed Anthony Rizzo. Cantillo threw a wild pitch, walked Rizzo, threw a wild pitch, and struck out Alex Verdugo.
He came out the next inning and walked two guys before Pedro Avila, Cleveland’s Game 1 savior, put out the fire. But, the Yankees were up 4-0 and, while Cleveland had a couple chances, the game never felt like it was hanging in the balance.
There were some silver linings for Cleveland. None of their high-leverage arms pitched, so Cade Smith and Tim Herrin, who worked all five games in the ALDS, are now working with two days off. Same with Emmanuel Clase and Hunter Gaddis, who each worked four of the five games, including Game 5. Yankees closer Luke Weaver struck out four of the five batters he retired, but he did have to push for a five-out save, so we’ll see if that matters down the line.
What we saw yesterday from Stephen Vogt was the difference of a five-game series vs. a seven-game series. Dexter Fowler and Mike Petriello were great on the MLB DataCast (TruTV) and pointed this out early in the game. While many were upset that Vogt didn’t go to his better guys to keep the game in check, the return on investment may not match up with only two off days over seven games as opposed to the three in the five-game series last round.
The fact of the matter is that Guardians starters need to be better and give the team more length. I do worry a lot about that with Bibee today. In his two starts against the Tigers, he only made it through 8.2 innings with two runs allowed on eight hits. He struck out nine, but walked three and had a lot of deep counts. The Yankees drew 27 walks in four games against the Royals and seven walks against Cleveland pitching last night. Bibee has to keep his emotions in check and give the team some length.
That’s easier said than done against this Yankees lineup. Bibee has had some really long innings early in games. He threw 30 pitches in the first inning of Game 1 before the offense spotted him a five-run lead. He had a long second inning with two walks in Game 4 and got very fortunate to get an inning-ending double play on a Jake Rogers lineout. I can’t say I’m thrilled with the situation Cleveland is in here having to throw Bibee. DraftKings doesn’t have a line up for Bibee’s outs at time of writing. Expect Vogt to manage this like an elimination game with an off day coming on Wednesday.
Cole was shaky in Game 1 against the Royals with four runs allowed on seven hits over five innings. He threw seven innings of one-run ball in Game 2. Cole only has eight strikeouts of 49 batters in his 12 playoff innings so far, so that’s something that merits watching, as Cleveland allowed Carlos Rodon to set a Yankee record for whiffs in a playoff start with 25 and struck out 14 times overall in the game.
We’ll see some Cleveland hitters we haven’t seen much in the postseason with Will Brennan and Kyle Manzardo, as the Guardians have seen a lot of left-handed pitching. This will also turn Jose Ramirez and Brayan Rocchio around, plus it neutralizes David Fry and Lane Thomas’s strong platoon splits against southpaws. This is the type of game where Cleveland could really use Josh Naylor, but he’s been awful in the postseason while swinging at every pitch thrown his way.
This won’t be available to everybody, but you can find it at DraftKings and FanDuel, the Yankees 1st 3 Innings Run Line is -0.5 at +114. I think that’s a reasonable bet, especially with Bibee struggling early in his two playoff starts. I don’t think Vogt will want to go too quickly to pen, as he’ll try to get as many outs from Bibee as he can, though he may not be left with a choice. His fastball command has been poor thus far, as he only has eight called strikes on 53 fastballs and had a 40% Zone% on the fastball in Game 4. Overall, he had just a 41% Zone% in that start.
Given how the Yankees have been so adept at drawing walks and being patient, New York will have scoring chances early. What happens as this game goes along with Cole turning to lineup over and Vogt using all his best arms is more debatable. If Bibee can keep it close, Cleveland on a live moneyline or +1.5 ticket may be a worthwhile investment, as their relievers should shut it down. As a Guardians fan, I just hope the damage isn’t done first.
Pick: Yankees 1st 3 Innings Run Line -0.5 (+114)
