MLB Best Bets Today September 17:
Every team takes the field tonight, as we have six games in each league and three interleague games, just like the schedule format we had over the weekend. Most of the NL contenders are playing clearly inferior opponents, though the Phillies and Brewers have an interesting series going in Milwaukee and the Padres are battling the Astros. The Braves, Dodgers, Mets, and Diamondbacks all have good chances to bank wins this week.
In the AL, the contenders are spread out, though most of the playoff spots are more or less claimed. The Tigers and Twins are in a dogfight for a spot, but the other four are pretty set. The Mariners are a couple games out in the ALWC race as they host the Yankees this week.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 17:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-205, 9.5) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
Bobby Miller and Darren McCaughan are the listed hurlers for this one between the Dodgers and Marlins. McCaughan was in the spotlight for me in his last start against the Nationals, as he allowed six hits and three runs over five innings. I’m looking at the same position here against McCaughan and that is Over 5.5 Hits Allowed.
McCaughan has seven strikeouts and three walks out of 62 batters faced in three starts here in September. He’s allowed 17 hits in that span, going over this 5.5 total twice. His SwStr% by start are 5.6%, 5.5%, 4.8%. He’s a guy that peppers the strike zone, with a 57.6% Zone%. So, I feel like the Dodgers, who are typically pretty patient, are going to be very aggressive here. The focus won’t be on drawing walks. They’ll be looking to swing the bats and there are a lot of very good hitters in that lineup.
Miami is also in a good position to see what McCaughan actually is to find out if he’s a viable arm going forward, so I don’t think they’ll have a super quick hook tonight. This was plus money last time, but he’s facing a way better lineup tonight.
Pick: Darren McCaughan Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
Zebby Matthews and Gavin Williams are the listed hurlers in this one, as another big AL Central matchup is on tap. The Guardians stole one last night on the strength of their bullpen and a timely two-run blast from Kyle Manzardo. That pushes the Twins into even more of a desperation mode with the Tigers’ comeback win over the Royals.
My handicap here is on Williams, whose K prop is set at 5.5. I’m not a big Gavin Williams guy. I realize that he’s got a 5.23 ERA and a 3.88 FIP, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile. But, I really don’t like where the stuff is at present.
Williams has 14 starts this season and he’s gone over this number five times. He’s done it once in his last seven starts. He isn’t really a big whiff merchant, despite his high velocity numbers. He even gets a decent amount of swings and misses inside the zone, but he doesn’t get as many of them on pitches outside the zone as other guys do.
He only has a 10.7% SwStr% over these last seven starts and 10.5% for the season. League average for starters is 10.7%. He’s also allowed a 43.1% Hard Hit% and an 8% Barrel% after giving up three of them to the Rays last time out.
The Guardians had a really big bullpen lift yesterday, but they got by without using Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, or Nick Sandlin, so I do think Stephen Vogt will still be aggressive with Williams if he gets in trouble.
Pick: Gavin Williams Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs (-155, 8.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
This total is already down to 8 at some shops and is showing signs of moving down to 8 at others with a matchup between the Athletics and Cubs. It will be Mitch Spence and Jordan Wicks in this one, as Spence hits the road, which has been a problem for him.
Spence has a 4.82 ERA and a 5.13 FIP over 65.1 innings away from home this season and has allowed a .261/.327/.478 slash with a .347 wOBA. He’s given up 11 of his 17 homers outside of the friendly confines in Oakland. His K% drops from 22.3% to 16.1% when he goes on the road and his HR/9 nearly doubles. The Cubs have been the second-best offense over the last 30 days by wOBA at .346 and wRC+ at 125. They’ve really cut down on the strikeouts and they’ve been stealing some bases to manufacture additional offense.
The A’s are the third-best road offense over the last 30 days. They have a .342 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. With this matchup against Wicks, they get a guy who has allowed 11 runs on 17 hits in 13 innings since returning to the big league roster. He’s allowed four homers and has eight walks against six strikeouts. Opposing batters have a 42.6% Hard Hit% against him and he’s averaged over 93 mph in exit velo in his last two starts.
He’s definitely fighting it a bit since coming back. I think we get some runs in this one. Both bullpens rank in the bottom third of the league in reliever ERA over the last 30 days and rank 19th and 25th over the last 14 days.
DraftKings has Over 8.5 at +102. A lot of other shops have Over 8 (-120). I prefer the Over 8 at -120, but this is what DK has to offer now. I do think they move to 8 and probably -122 as the day goes along, so there’s no harm in waiting on this total. I have to get the article posted, though.
Pick: A’s/Cubs Over 8.5 (+102)
