MLB schedule today has 1 game
After a day of rest, we’ll see if the Texas Rangers have collected themselves or if the fearless and resilient Diamondbacks can take a 2-1 series lead in the best-of-seven matchup that will decide this season’s MLB champion. The venue now shifts to Chase Field in the 2-3-2 format and today’s game is part of the Sports Equinox.
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Here are some thoughts on the October 30 card (odds from DraftKings):
(odds as of 8:40 a.m. PT)
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 9)
If you had told me or any other baseball bettor or observer prior to the season that we’d have a World Series game featuring Max Scherzer, it wouldn’t have come as a shock. If you had said that he’d be facing Brandon Pfaadt, many would have said “who?!” or laughed at you. Well, that’s what we have here in Game 3 and another semi-shocking development is that the game is lined a virtual pick ‘em at -110 both ways.
The question is whether or not it should be. Scherzer has been objectively bad in the playoffs, which isn’t totally his fault, as an injury wiped out the tail end of his season and he’s back before he was expected to be. He threw his final regular season pitch on September 12 and was hit with a low-grade teres major strain that takes about a month to heal, not to mention getting back into game shape. When GM Chris Young said Scherzer was “unlikely” to pitch in the playoffs, I’m not sure he expected his team to make it this far, but Mad Max was actually back by October 18 to pitch in the ALCS.
But, Scherzer has not been effective. He’s allowed seven runs on nine hits in just 6.2 innings with six strikeouts against three walks. The velocity looks fine, but the command is definitely lacking and he’s been unable to work deep into games. He’s also dealing with a cut on his right thumb as a callus broke open. He’s dealt with it before, and apparently dealt with it in both ALCS starts, but we sure do have a lot of things keeping Scherzer from being his best.
He had a 3.77 ERA with a 4.32 FIP during the regular season, but a 3.20 ERA and a 3.41 FIP in 45 innings with the Rangers after he was traded from the Mets at the Trade Deadline. Scherzer actually gave up seven runs on six hits in his second-to-last start of the regular season, so his numbers were even better prior to that. That start was against the Astros, so maybe they just had a good read on him and that’s why he struggled so much in his two ALCS starts, but I’m skeptical of what we’ll see here again tonight.
With some sort of Frankenstein pitching setup required tomorrow that will likely feature both Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning, the Rangers will have to go into tonight with a plan of attack given the likelihood that Scherzer does not work all that deep into the game. The bullpen has been lightly used in this series so far. Jose Leclerc is the only high-leverage reliever to get some usage and that came with 26 pitches in Friday’s Game 1. Will Smith threw seven pitches. Most of the primary guys have had the last 2-3 days off and some guys, like Aroldis Chapman and Josh Sborz, haven’t pitched since the ALCS.
Nobody really expected Pfaadt to do what he has done here in the postseason. After a rough outing in the Wild Card round against the Brewers with three runs allowed on seven hits in just 2.2 innings, Pfaadt has allowed two runs over his last 14 innings of work on just eight hits. He struck out 16 Phillies over his two starts in that series and it seems like pitching coach Brent Strom unlocked a cheat code with the 25-year-old rookie.
Pfaadt used Philadelphia’s aggressiveness as a weapon and got a lot of chases outside the strike zone, either to induce weak contact and foul balls or get swings and misses. The Phillies were 11th in Swing% and fourth in O-Swing% during the regular season per Statcast. The Rangers, meanwhile, were 17th in Swing% and 25th in O-Swing%.
The reason why having Pfaadt throw pitches outside the zone was so smart and successful is because his command in the zone hasn’t been a calling card for him. He gave up 22 homers in 96 regular season innings. He has only given up two homers in his postseason starts. He certainly comes into this start on a high note and a higher note than Scherzer, but the Rangers should be more adept at getting him into the zone and that’s where the chess match lies in this game.
Arizona used six relievers in the devastating Game 1 loss, but the bullpen had a very light workload thanks to Merrill Kelly’s seven spectacular innings in Game 2. All hands are on deck and ready to go. Much like Texas, though, the D-Backs will have to MacGyver something up for tomorrow, as they only run three starters deep and tomorrow night will be a Johnny Wholestaff kind of game to be started by an opener.
The other thing to hone in on for every Arizona game going forward is how they will do on the bases. Scherzer allowed 9-of-10 would-be base stealers to be successful this season, but only 10-of-21 were successful the previous two seasons. Arizona has tried to push the envelope with green lights for their runners. So far in this series, they are 5-for-5, but Tommy Pham was picked off second in Game 2.
I’m going to take a shot with the 1st 5 Over here. I don’t think Pfaadt matches up as well against the Rangers, who are a more disciplined lineup on the whole and aren’t looking to hit as many home runs as the Phillies were. Scherzer’s lack of swing and miss in the two starts against Houston will once again be magnified here by a D-Backs lineup that was among the best in baseball at strikeout avoidance.
My one concern is the venue change, as I don’t really think of Chase Field as a great hitter’s park. It felt darker to me than most parks I’ve been in and I think hitters sometimes struggle to pick up the ball. Remember that Game 3 was a 2-1 game between the Phillies and D-Backs with no runs until the seventh inning between Pfaadt and Ranger Suarez last round. So, I think this could be a boom or bust play where we get a lot of fireworks or no fireworks.
But, given where the in-zone command is for these two guys, I think the possibility for runs will be there. Most of the market is showing 5 with pretty reasonable juice. DK is showing Over 4.5 at -135. That’s the line I have to go with given the odds I’ve cited all season long. If you can find a 5 at -110 or, better yet, find reduced juice, that is also okay. One legal US book on my odds screen had 5 at +105 on the Over this morning, so shop around as always.
Pick: 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-135)
