Sunday Night Baseball: Astros vs. Orioles:
Division leaders square off on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball to wrap up a series that has been worth the price of admission. The Orioles have gotten heroics from Anthony Santander and Jackson Holliday in the last two games after the Astros got a stellar performance from Spencer Arrighetti in Game 1 on Thursday night.
So, the Astros need a win for a split, the Orioles need a win to take down the series, and it will be Yusei Kikuchi vs. Dean Kremer to start this one.
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How to Watch Astros vs. Orioles
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday August 25, 7:10 p.m. ET
Astros vs. Orioles MLB Odds
Houston Astros -112 // Baltimore Orioles -108
Total: 8.5 (-105/-115)
Astros vs. Orioles Game Preview
The race for the best record in the American League is also the race for the East Division crown. The Orioles began the day a half-game back of the Yankees, who were lined as a heavy favorite against the Rockies. Baltimore has been neck-and-neck with New York for a while now, as most of the league’s top teams have had a tough time of late.
The Astros had stretched their AL West lead out to 5.5 games before dropping the last two decisions, as they began the day as the only team in that division with a winning record. Given that Houston started the season 7-19 over the first 26 games, the fact that they were able to claw back and have a lead at all was impressive, as they’ve gone 12-5 over their last 17 games.
Kikuchi was the only major addition that the Astros made at the Trade Deadline and he has paid off nicely. In four starts, he’s allowed just six earned runs and eight runs total with a 31/7 K/BB ratio and a 2.42 ERA with a 3.08 FIP. He has faced the Rays twice, Rangers, and Red Sox, so some pretty talented offenses and has gotten a steady diet of AL East teams after coming over from the Blue Jays.
The Orioles have a .325 wOBA with a 114 wRC+ in the second half against lefties with a .251/.319/.428 slash, but they do have a 25.4% K% that sits as the 10th-highest in the league. Kikuchi has worked into the sixth inning in all four starts, but has not been able to complete it yet. With a rested bullpen for manager Joe Espada, he may not again tonight.
It has been a tale of two seasons for Kremer, who has had two excellent outings back-to-back against the Nationals and Mets with two runs allowed on seven hits over his last 12 innings. He has a 4.30 ERA with a 4.65 FIP, but Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been unkind this season. In 42.2 innings at home, Kremer has allowed a .259/.332/.482 slash and a .348 wOBA with a 4.85 ERA. On the road over 53.2 innings, he’s allowed a .184/.267/.296 slash with a .253 wOBA and has a 3.86 ERA.
This start does come at home, where he’s allowed 10 of his 15 home runs and has a lower K% by 3.4%. He’s only allowed two earned runs in two home starts in the second half, but did allow three unearned runs against the Padres back on July 27.
Houston ranks 15th in wOBA at .316 against righties in the second half with a .251/.313/.418 slash and a 107 wRC+. And, unlike the Astros, the Orioles pen has one key reliever with a heavy workload, as Seranthony Dominguez has worked four of the last six days and each of the last two.
I like the Astros here. Houston is leveraging Kikuchi’s arsenal well and his ceiling strikes me as higher than that of Kremer’s. Plus, the O’s lineup definitely looks stronger against righties in my opinion. Keep an eye on the status of Yordan Alvarez, as the line will likely move Baltimore’s way if he’s out and you can get a better number. Similarly, if he’s in, the line will move Houston’s way and do so pretty quickly.
Pick: Astros -112
Astros vs. Orioles Player Props
First Strikeout: Yusei Kikuchi +125
Kremer obviously starts the ballgame here, but he has an 18.8% K% in the second and has also had some issues with walks. Kikuchi has a 34.1% K% in his four starts with the Astros. Kikuchi should also get two hitters with a K% of 22% or higher in his first inning, while Kremer is going to get three good contact hitters, even if Alvarez can’t go.
