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MLB value plays for Wednesday, May 31
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Padres (-120) vs. Marlins. Greg’s Line: Padres -139.
Since the beginning of May, San Diego has had a bullpen ERA of 1.84. No other team has better than a 2.86 ERA in that span. Their starter Blake Snell has a 5.04 ERA, but he enters having allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts and gets to face a Marlins lineup that is last in the National League in runs per game.
Phillies (-115) vs. Mets. Greg’s Line: Phillies -130.
Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA with 1.8 home runs, 4.3 walks, and 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season with at least five runs allowed in three of his five starts. Phillies starter Aaron Nola has a lifetime 3.30 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 starts against the Mets. He is backed up by a bullpen that is 11th in the league in ERA the past 30 days while the Mets are 25th in this category.
Twins vs. Astros Total 8.5. Greg’s Line 7.9
The Minnesota Twins have the worst road batting average in the league. They face an Astros team with the best home ERA in the American League. Astros starter Hunter Brown has a 3.12 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Twins starter Louie Varland has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his six starts and faces an Astros lineup that is hitting the third-fewest home runs per game at home this season.
