New York Mets at Colorado Rockies:
The New York Mets have caught fire in the summer months and will continue their push to reach the playoffs on Tuesday when they open a series on the road against the Colorado Rockies. This is the game we’ll choose for Tuesday’s MLB pick.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets. He has a 3.93 ERA despite seeing his strikeouts dip to a career-low of seven per nine innings.
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He faces a Rockies team that hits significantly better at home than on the road, averaging over 4.9 runs per game at home compared to less than 3.7 runs per game away from home, with the largest home-to-road batting average differential in the league, hitting .268 at home and .220 on the road.
The Mets also have large offensive home and road splits, the only difference being they are a far more explosive offense at home, scoring nearly 5.3 runs per game with a .266 batting average while notching 4.5 runs per game with a .232 batting average at home.
It will be up to Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland to keep the bats in check. He enters in good form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in six of his seven starts since coming off of the injured list, but he still owns a 5.64 ERA and pitched to lots of contact with only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
The bullpen behind Freeland has also been the league’s worst this season with a 5.63 ERA, with no other team entering Monday with a bullpen ERA above 5.04.
With the Mets 4.03 ERA in the bullpen ranking 17th in the league and both teams having offensive splits conducive to runs in this environment, Tuesday sets up for a fun night for the bats.
MLB Pick: Mets vs. Rockies Over 10.5 Runs
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