Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with 10-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Brewers (73-53) took the opener 3-2, cashing as +105 road dogs. Then the Cardinals (62-64) bounced back with a 10-6 win in extra innings last night, taking care of business as -115 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Brewers start righty Freddy Peralta (8-7, 4.00 ERA) and the Cardinals tap fellow righty Miles Mikolas (8-10, 5.41 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 road favorite and St. Louis a +110 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brewers laying short road chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -120 to -130. The Brewers are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 149-102 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 56-27 (67%) with a 12% ROI. Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Brewers have the better offense, hitting .254 with 603 runs scored compared to the Cardinals hitting .246 with 520 runs scored. Peralta has a 3.66 ERA on the road compared to 4.30 at home. Mikolas has a 9.22 ERA in three August starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched. He has a 6.53 ERA at home compared to 4.54 on the road. Milwaukee is 7-2 against St. Louis this season.
3:37 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
This is the final game of a four-game series. The Athletics (54-73) won the opener 3-0, cashing as +105 home dogs. Then the Rays (64-52) took the next two games, winning 1-0 on Tuesday as -120 road favorites and winning again yesterday 4-2 as -130 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Rays send out lefty Jeffrey Springs (1-1, 3.86 ERA) and the Athletics tap righty Osvaldo Bido (4-3, 3.40 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Oakland a +105 home dog. Pros have laid the short road chalk with the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -115 to -125. The Rays are receiving 60% of moneyline bets, evidence of modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Non-division road favorites off a win are 149-108 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 186-156 (54%) with a 1.5% ROI. Tampa Bay has betting system value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the better team who is expected to win. Tampa Bay is 3-1 in Springs’ four starts this season. Oakland is hitting .237 against lefties, ranking 22nd in MLB. The Rays are 4-2 against the Athletics this season.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at San Diego Padres (-160, 7)
The Mets (66-61) just took two of three against the Orioles, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -140 home favorites. Similarly, the Padres (72-56) just took two of three against the Twins but failed to earn the sweep by losing 11-4 yesterday as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Mets hand the ball to righty Luis Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) and the Padres counter with fellow righty Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -145 home favorite and New York a +130 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Padres at home, steaming San Diego up from -145 to -160. The Padres are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 405-281 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Padres have the superior offense, hitting .265 compared to .249 for the Mets. Severino has a 4.85 ERA on the road compared to 3.13 at home. San Diego is 6-1 in Cease’s last seven starts. The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games, hitting .258 with a 3.93 ERA. The Mets are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .245 with a 4.65 ERA. San Diego is hitting .272 against righties, the best in MLB. New York is hitting .245 against righties, ranking 15th.
