Today we have a massive 17-game MLB slate to choose from, including day sweats and a pair of doubleheaders. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:50 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8)
The Rays (45-46) stole last night’s series opener 5-3, cashing as +100 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees (55-38) send out righty Marcus Stroman (7-4, 3.58 ERA) and the Rays rebuttal with fellow righty Zach Eflin (5-5, 4.19 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is riding with the Bronx Bombers to get back on track at a coin-flip price. However, despite 73% of moneyline bets taking New York we’ve seen this line shoot up toward Tampa Bay (-110 to -120). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular play (only receiving 27% of moneyline bets). To put it another way, the Rays are receiving sharp “pick’em to favorite” line movement. Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Stroman has given up 15 earned runs in 21 innings pitched over his last four starts. Eflin has a 2.43 ERA at home compared to 5.97 on the road. The Yankees have struggled mightily as of late, going just 5-16 over their last 21 games.
8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-160, 8.5)
The Pirates (44-47) took last night’s series opener 12-2, cruising as +135 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates hand the ball to lefty Martin Perez (1-4, 4.85 ERA) and the Brewers (53-39) counter with righty Tobias Myers (5-3, 3.52 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +135 road dog. Sharps are banking on the Brewers to bounce back with a win, steaming Milwaukee up from -150 to -160. The Brewers are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split combined with a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Brewers have buy-low betting system value as a favorite off loss, which is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this season. Milwaukee also has the better bats, hitting .255 with 441 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .231 with 382 runs scored. The Brewers are 27-14 at home. The Pirates are 22-23 on the road. Perez has a 5.97 ERA on the road this season. The Brewers are 7-3 in Myers’ last ten starts. He has given up one earned run or less in four of his last six starts.
9:45 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (-155, 8)
The Giants (45-47) took last night’s series opener 4-3, cashing as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (41-50) go with righty Chris Bassitt (7-7, 3.43 ERA) and the Giants send out fellow righty Logan Webb (7-6, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and Toronto a +120 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have jumped on the Giants at a modest chalk price, steaming San Francisco up from -135 to -155. The Giants are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets, signaling public support but also respected sharp action in the form form of a 20-cent steam move in their favor. San Francisco has value as an Interleague favorite off a win, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team carrying momentum. The Giants also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Bassitt’s last six starts. Webb has a 2.13 ERA at home compared to 3.92 on the road. The Giants have the better offense, hitting .244 with 92 homers and 406 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .233 with 81 homers and 362 runs scored. San Francisco is 26-19 at home. Toronto is 20-26 on the road.
