Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games from 8 to 10 a.m. ET this morning on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 2 slate…
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 45.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Chargers (0-1) dropped their season opener to the Dolphins 36-34, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Titans (0-1) fell to the Saints 16-15 in Week 1 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Los Angeles. However, despite receiving 79% of bets we’ve seen the Chargers fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog, ideally at +3. Tennessee is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 21% of bets. Conference dogs +6 or less are 7-4 ATS this season and 283-199 ATS (59%) since 2019. When two winless teams face off in Week 2 the dog is 42-23 ATS (65%) since 2005. Mike Vrabel is 24-15 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career. Tennessee also presents teaser value (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. The Chargers will be without star RB Austin Ekeler due to injury.
1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-8, 47)
The Raiders (1-0) took down the Broncos 17-16 in Week 1, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Bills (0-1) fell to the Jets 22-16, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides. However, despite this even ticket split, we’ve seen the Bills fall from -9.5. to -8. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this move was caused by smart money grabbing the points with the Raiders. Road dogs are 8-3 ATS this season and 433-344 ATS (56%) since 2018. Jimmy Garoppolo is 20-10 ATS (67%) on the road and 18-5 ATS (78%) as a dog. The Raiders also enjoy a rest advantage, having played on Sunday while the Bills are on a short week having played on Monday night. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (56% ATS).
1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2, 40)
The Packers (1-0) crushed the Bears 38-20 last week, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Similarly, the Falcons (1-0) took down the Panthers 24-10, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line initially opened with Atlanta listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, it flipped to Packers -1.5. Since that time, late sharp action has hammered the Falcons, flipping Atlanta back to a 2-point home favorite. This line movement is notable because the public is all over the Packers (72% of bets), yet the line is moving toward the unpopular Falcons (21%). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Atlanta, with pros backing the contrarian favorite and fading trendy dog Green Bay. The Falcons are only receiving 29% of bets but 46% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Those looking to follow the smart money but wary of laying the points could instead target the Falcons on the moneyline at -135. Green Bay will be without two key players due to injury, missing RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson. Tra Blake, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (65%) ATS).
