Bills vs. Dolphins – Thursday Night Football Player Prop Best Bets:

The first week of the NFL season is particularly easy in some years and difficult in others. Lately, it has proven to be more difficult because a lot of teams aren’t playing their guys in the preseason. We now have some date for tonight’s Thursday Night Football player props.

We’re no longer going in near-blind on most of the 32 teams regarding their utilization of players and ability to stop opposing offenses. I’ll have more than enough data in two to three weeks to feel great about my positions on players, but we’re not there yet. However, I feel good about my Week 2 prospects, given the information we did get in Week 1.  

 

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Here’s what I like in the Buffalo at Miami game to kick off Week 2. (All lines are for DraftKings.)  

  • James Cook Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • James Cook Over 14.5 rushing attempts (-115)

Last week, the Bills had a negative game script for most of the first half, yet they continued to run the ball. The Bills are 2.5-point underdogs, but I like them to win the game. Their defense has given Tua Tagovailoa problems, and they’re down Raheem Mostert with De’Von Achane dealing with a knee issue.

In 10 games with offensive coordinator Joe Brady calling the offense, Cook has received a more than 14.5 line in eight of them. They’ve lost twice in those ten games with Brady, and Cooks had 16 and 18 rush attempts in those games. Despite being tied or losing the game for much of the second half, the Jags last week had the sixth-lowest pass rate over expectation (-5.2%) of any team in Week 1, and their top-2 RBs combined for 24 carries in a loss. Cook gets it done here, at least in terms of carries and rushing yardage totals. 

  • Jaylen Waddle Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)

I can’t call this a good play unless you’re jonesing for some action on TNF (and who isn’t?), but the Bills have given Tua problems his entire career, including last year, when Tua had just 2 TD passes and 3 INTs along with a weaker 7.3 YPA. The Bills were also ninth in pressure rate at 42.1% and 27.1% on play-action passes in Week 1, which is when Tua can kill you if he’s protected. When Tua was not pressured last week, his aDOT on play-action was 10.5. If he was, it was 4.2.

Basically, I’m not shocked that Tyreek Hill put up 3/58 receiving in the first matchup against the Bills last season and “only” 7/82/1 in the season finale. In the meantime, the Bills used two-high looks 68.4% of the time in Week 1 (fifth-most, and they ranked top-3 in two-high usage last year), and over the past two seasons, Waddle has averaged 3.14 YPRR (3rd-best) and 0.67 FP/RR (4th-best) against two-high, which is an +18.0% and +52.3% boost over his single-high efficiency, respectively. I think this one is a “Waddle game.”

  • Jonnu Smith Over 14.5 receiving yards (-115)

Jonnu is my “Thursday Night Special,” or my sleeper for the game. It’s risky since he caught only one ball last week for seven yards, but the Bills’ pass defense is something of an inside funnel, and Jonnu was third on the team in route participation last week. He ran 71% of his routes from the slot. The Bills are also down their starting slot corner in Taron Johnson, which helps. Veteran Durham Smythe is still here, but he also had success against this exact defense last year, catching all seven of his targets for 71 yards. I think Miami will have some issues throwing it this week with few big plays, and Jonnu was brought in to help move the needle in spots like this one. I also like Over 1.5 receptions, but the odds are bad, so I’ll go with this play and hope he catches a couple of balls. 

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For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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