Late Line Movement NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

It’s not even the weekend yet, but we’re already 1-0 on NFL plays this week as the Bengals and Ravens sailed over the 52.5-point total on Thursday night to give us our first winner of the week. It’s now Friday, which means injury news is mostly available, lines have moved, and there’s still plenty of opportunity to lock in some NFL bets for the weekend slate. There are two huge injury updates to consider this week: Trevor Lawrence is considered doubtful for the Jaguars and Christian McCaffrey is expected to return to the 49ers lineup to bolster that offense. Now, let’s see where the T Shoe Index takes us to add to our NFL portfolio this week:

 

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San Francisco 49ers (-6.5; 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Speaking of McCaffrey’s return, I liked this Over before I heard the official news, and I’m surprised we didn’t see a substantial line move on this total accordingly. It is up to 50.5 from 49, but that was mostly very early movement before the news officially came out, although I suppose more plugged-in bettors may have already known this was coming. Nonetheless, TSI projects this total at 55, as these teams have scored and allowed 56.5 total points, on average, over their last five games. Adding CMC to the mix for San Francisco should only improve their offense, thus favoring the Over. These offenses are both in the top 6 in TSI offensive ratings, and both defenses are outside the top 15. That’s a recipe for an Over if I’ve ever seen one.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 52)

Detroit Lions (-3.5; 48.5) at Houston Texans

Speaking of high-quality offenses, how about the #1 TSI offense, Detroit, taking on the #11 offense of the Houston Texans. These defenses are a little better than the Bucs/49ers matchup, as the Lions are #12 and the Texans are #15, but that’s reflected by the total being 2 points lower than that game. Over the last five games, Detroit is averaging 39 points per game (!) and allowing 19, while Houston is averaging 24.5 and allowing 21. TSI projects 52 points in this one, so getting below 49 is huge here, but I’d still play this to 50.5 – which is where we saw the market top out earlier this week after opening at 48. I think the Lions’ offense is a wagon right now and CJ Stroud and company can put points up with the best of them. I also like the game script aspect where Detroit does its thing and scores in bunches, and Houston is playing keep-up, which CJ Stroud does phenomenally. Let’s root for points and be glad we’re not betting against Detroit like we did last week. 

Week 10 NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (play to 50.5)

For more NFL Week 10 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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