Late Line Movement NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

It’s already Friday, which means we’re just two days away from another full NFL Sunday following the Falcons’ 36-30 OT win vs Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs on Thursday Night Football. Be sure to go back and read my early week NFL bets – and come back every Tuesday for those – and follow me on X @TShoeIndex for all of my betting nuggets, graphs, bets, etc. I love these Friday analysis pieces because, sure, you get my bets, but I think more importantly, it teaches you how to think as a strategic bettor and not just say, “I like this team; I’m going to bet them.” Line movement is as important as any factor in long-term sports betting, and particularly in an efficient market like the NFL, every bit of line value can help a ton. Let’s see where lines have perhaps overcorrected so far with my NFL Week 5 picks:

 

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Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5; 44)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

On Sunday, this Over/Under was a mere 41 at DraftKings, and has since climbed 3 full points to 44, where it currently sits. TSI was right in line with the opener at 41, so creating value on the under by going above key numbers 41 and 42 is massive value created by this line move, so I’m all over this. Pittsburgh has the #4 opponent-adjusted points per play defense in the league, while neither team’s offense is particularly threatening in that regard, as Dallas is around 11th and Pittsburgh is 26th in opponent-adjusted offensive points per play. Both teams are in the twenties in opponent-adjusted EPA/play, while the Steelers have a top-three defensive unit in that category. As a cherry on top, the forecast in Pittsburgh calls for rain with ~10 MPH winds, so nothing crazy, but it certainly doesn’t hurt an Under play that the numbers love.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Under 44 or better

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4; 41)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

With no major weather concerns being reported as of Friday morning and no late injury news that would make me think these teams won’t be able to keep up their average scoring pace, I love to see the Over/Under drop from 45.5 Sunday to 41 today when TSI projects 47.5 points in this game. I wonder if the market is still factoring in the Bryce Young Panthers offense into this equation. Since Andy Dalton took over, the Panthers have been in old-school, Big 12-type shootouts the last couple of games, with 58 total points scored in each. I’ve got this Dalton-led Panthers team #11 on offense and dead last in defense; that’s a recipe for an Over if I’ve ever seen one, especially when Caleb Williams is under center on the other side. My numbers love it and it’s gone through multiple key numbers, so this is a no-brainer bet for me.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Over 41 or better

For more NFL Week 5 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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