NFL Week 1 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

NFL Week 1 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

Is there anything better than this crossover of late summer into fall when we have WNBA, college football and the NFL to bet on, virtually seven days a week? I love it. I’m so glad football is back and I’m anxious to start firing away with some NFL Week 1 best bets on what should be a great season. If you’re new to me or what I do, definitely check out my introductory article that explains a little bit about who I am, what the heck my T Shoe Index is, and why you should trust it to help you cash some bets.

Anyway, enough about me, let’s get to my favorite bets of Week 1:

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

Friday, 8:20 p.m. (PEACOCK)

Jalen Hurts vs. Jordan Love. This will be a fantastic battle of young, star QBs dueling it out in Brazil. When the Eagles’ 9th-rated offense is on the field, they’ll be facing off against the 17th-rated defense, per TSI. Advantage: Eagles’ offense. Similarly, TSI has the Packers offense rated 12th, taking on the #21 defense of Philadelphia. Advantage: Packers’ offense. Are you sensing where this is going? The Eagles are 3-point favorites, with an Over/Under set at 49 and climbing, and TSI projects the Eagles as just a -.5 point favorite with a total of 51.5. Given the offensive advantages in this game both ways, I like the Over at 49 or better.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Over 49 or better

Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Atlanta made waves this offseason, drafting QB Michael Penix when they had just handed Kirk Cousins a hefty contract on the heels (no pun intended) of his Achilles tear. Either way, the Falcons project to take a step forward and are the favorites in the NFC South. Pittsburgh also has been in the headlines after signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields, so we don’t exactly know who is going to be playing on either side of this matchup for certain. The Falcons’ offense projects to be just 18th in the league, taking on the stingy Pittsburgh defense, rated 8th. The Steelers offense, similarly, is rated 26th and takes on the fifth-rated defense of Atlanta. Atlanta is a 3-point favorite at home with an Over/Under of 42 across the board. With a defensive battle likely, I’m going to go Under the key number of 42.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Under 42

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

I saved the most anticipated for last. This game should be an absolute banger. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the new-look backfield for Baltimore with Derrick Henry in the mix, and the Chiefs fresh off another Super Bowl title. The Ravens enter the season as the TSI #1 team, boasting the #1 projected offense and the #1 defense. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are the # 5 offense and #2 defense, so this should be a hard-fought, physical game featuring two great teams. The Chiefs are 3-point favorites at home, with an Over/Under set at 46 for most books. TSI projects this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 45. The under is maybe worth a look, but I’m sold on getting a full field goal with the team I rate as #1 in the league. All due respect to the Chiefs, I kind of expect some championship fatigue this season until the playoffs. Teams that are always making deep playoff runs tend to eventually start sleepwalking through the regular season (Golden State in the NBA comes to mind) and the Chiefs are that. Give me the underdog +3 and maybe a quarter unit on the ML.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3, -110 (Play to +3, -125)

Note: understanding pricing, especially in the NFL, is imperative. Read my “when to buy points in the NFL” article for the full breakdown of pricing, but here is a quick chart to demonstrate this game. Getting +3 (-125) is better than getting +2.5 (-110), and getting +3.5, even at -140, would be better than them both. Shop around and always find the best price.

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.