NFL Week 1 Betting Splits Systems Update:

The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.

If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2024 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. 

 

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Here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems as they relate to today’s games:

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, LA CHARGERS, SEATTLE, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, SEATTLE, DALLAS, NY JETS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DALLAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): OVER – JAX-MIA, HOU-IND, LAR-DET

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-ATL, MIN-NYG, CAR-NO, NE-CIN, TEN-CHI, LVR-LAC, DEN-SEA, DAL-CLE, NYJ-SF 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-MIA, ARI-BUF, HOU-IND, WAS-TB, LAR-DET

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): ARI-BUF, WAS-TB

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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