NFL Week 17 Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my NFL Week 17 best bets and props:

 

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Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 42.5) vs. New England Patriots

The Chargers head into New England to try to lock up a playoff spot in the early game on Saturday. While I have been impressed by Drake Maye, especially with the lack of talent around him, this is a tough spot for the Pats.

The return of JK Dobbins is meaningful for this Chargers offense that has not been able to run the ball without him for the last four weeks. It was a precautionary move, so I am not concerned with him returning in the minimum amount of time. Ladd McConkey is also a nightmare for this Pats team. The Pats’ top corner plays on the outside and will be lined up against Quinton Johnston for much of the game, which means McConkey will consistently get positive matchups. McConkey is a top 10 wide receiver in the NFL vs. Man Coverage this season. The Pats play the second-most man defense in the NFL. This sets up for Los Angeles to have success offensively.

The coaching matchup also heavily favors the Chargers. Jared Mayo is not an NFL ready head coach, and Harbaugh has proven he is still the real deal. Let’s lay it with the Chargers.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -4.5

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 50.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Dan Campbell kept the receipts from last year, specifically referring to two games. The first was a loss to the Cowboys, which they avenged in a big way earlier this season. The other was the playoff loss to this 49ers team.

While the Detroit D is still banged up, it pales in comparison to this San Francisco offense which is down multiple running backs and wide receivers as well as pieces on the offensive line. If this turns into a shootout, the 49ers will struggle to keep up.

On the other side of the ball, the edges are all with the Lions. Gibbs provides explosiveness in the backfield, and the wide receiving core should be able to find room against an average secondary. The weather broke well for the Lions here as well in one of their few outdoor games this season.

This is all about if you get a fully motivated Lions team, which I expect you do. If that’s the case, they should win by margin.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Detroit Lions -3.5, Lions -12.5 +307

Prop Plays

Chase Brown Over 27.5 Reception Yards
Brown has been a staple of this explosive offense all year, but in the last six games, he has become a real threat through the air with over 50 yards in three of those games. The matchup is a great one here against the Broncos. Ja’Marr Chase draws a tough matchup with Pat Surtain, which should mean more involvement from other pass catchers here. The Broncos also pressure the QB and blitz, both set up for dropoffs and screens. Let’s go Over 27.5 reception yards and 50+ at +300.

Kendre Miller Over 40.5 Rush Yards
Miller was expected to take over the backfield with Alvin Kamara out, but the game script did not allow for it last week in a blowout loss. This week against the Raiders, you should see more carries, which will help Miller eclipse this low total for a clear starting running back.

Other Plays
Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions +100
Bucky Irving -11.5 Rush Yards vs. Chuba Hubbard

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