NFL underdogs continued their torrid stretch on Monday, going 2-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins. In the early game, the Washington Football Team (%plussign% 6) came up huge for sharps and contrarians, upsetting the Steelers 23-17 and ending Pittsburgh's undefeated season. Washington received massive sharp action (%plussign% 10 to %plussign% 6) and cashed %plussign% 225 on the moneyline. Dogs with a line move in their favor are now 52-31 ATS (63%) on the season. Short road dogs %plussign% 6 or less are now 47-25 ATS (65%).
In the nightcap, sharps got it completely wrong as the Bills (%plussign% 1.5) took down the 49ers 34-24. Wiseguys loved San Francisco, driving the 49ers from a %plussign% 3 dog to a -1.5 favorite. It was all for naught as Buffalo rolled for the public.
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When assessing sharp line moves, it's important to remember that pros are not perfect. Sharps move numbers, not public bettors. But pros won't win every time. To be considered a sharp, you need to consistently win 55% of the time (or more). The best pros in the business touch 60%. As a result, this means wiseguys lose roughly 45% of the time. But that doesn't mean you want to fade them. They will win more often than they lose, which is why being on the sharp side of every play is so important. You are playing a long game.
With Washington and Buffalo both covering, dogs are now 106-79-2 ATS (57.3%) on the season.
For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's final Week 13 game.
8:05 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens
This rare Tuesday Night matchup features a pair of struggling non-conference opponents desperate for a victory. The Cowboys (3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS) are just 1-5 over their last six games, including an embarrassing 41-16 beatdown at the hands of Washington on Thanksgiving Day, losing straight up as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) have lost three straight and four of their last five, most recently falling to the Steelers 19-14 last week, although they managed to cover as 10.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets, along with some respected early money, has come down on the Ravens, driving this line up to -8.5. Then some Dallas buyback showed up, dropping this line back down to 8 across the board. If you see this line fall back to 7.5, that will indicate some late money on Dallas plus the points. The Cowboys have value as a primetime dog (25-13 ATS, 66%) and a buy-low dog off a blowout. Teams off a blowout loss of 20%plussign% points have covered roughly 56% of the time over the past decade. Dallas also enjoys a massive rest vs tired advantage, similar to Washington against Pittsburgh last night. Dallas last played on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26) while Baltimore is on a short week and just played on Wednesday (December 2). Brad Rogers, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (57% ATS).
The total is 45.5. The forecast calls for low 30s and roughly 10 MPH winds. The under is 32-21 ATS (60%) over the past four weeks. The Cowboys are 6-5 to the over while the Ravens are 7-4 to the under.
Lamar Jackson has been cleared from COVID and will start at quarterback for Baltimore.
