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We really couldn’t ask for two better playoff matchups than these WNBA semifinals; the Liberty (1-0) seeking revenge against the two-time defending champion Aces, while defensive juggernaut Connecticut (1-0) tries to stifle the hot shooting of Minnesota.
Personally, I was surprised that Connecticut was able to take Game 1 on the road in Minnesota, which has me weary about my projection on tonight’s game (we’ll get to that in a minute). I am not surprised that the Liberty took Game 1 at home, as they have revenge on their mind and have flat out been the better team this season.
Let’s see if TSI is projecting 2-0 leads for New York and Connecticut or if the Aces and Lynx can even up these series.
Here are tonight’s WNBA projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
The Liberty have Game 2 at home, and are currently listed as 4.5-point favorites in the Barclays Center, with an Over/Under of 163.5. TSI projects LIberty -1.5 with a total of 162.5, but I have a hard time backing the Aces, as they’ve yet to beat the Liberty this season, losing by an average of 8.5 points per game. The total, though, has only averaged 157 points, so I do have a lean to the Under in this game but my number is too close to make it an official play.
Lean: Under 163.5
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx
As I mentioned, I was pretty surprised to see Connecticut go on the road in Game 1 and take a 1-0 series lead, but here we are. Now, I’ll be astounded if they take a commanding 2-0 lead in Minnesota against Defensive Player of the Year, Napheesa Collier. The Lynx are now five-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 152.5, while TSI projects Lynx -1.5 with a total of 152.5. Only one matchup between these two teams has resulted in a win of more than one possession; a five-point Sun win in July. The other three matchups have been decided by 3, 2, and 1 point.
I definitely think Minnesota gets the W tonight, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers here. I’ll take the Sun to cover on the road.
Bet: Sun +5 (Play to +3.5)
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