WNBA Best Bets:
Home courts are flipped, and we are onto Game 3s of the WNBA semifinals, where the Lynx managed to knot the series with Connecticut up 1-1, but they lost home-court advantage, and the Liberty took a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champion Aces. Connecticut looks to give itself a chance to close out at home in Game 4, while New York has its brooms out, ready for the sweep of Becky Hammon’s squad. Let’s see what the TSI projects for tonight’s pivotal Game 3s:
Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun
Minnesota won and covered in Game 2 at home – much to my chagrin, as a Sun +5 bettor – but that was a desperation spot that I should’ve factored more into my handicap. Now, Connecticut has the chance to turn the heat up on the Lynx, as the Sun are 2.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 151.5. TSI projects Connecticut -2 with a total of 151.5, so right in lockstep with the market. Minnesota has been about 4 points worse on the road than they’ve been at home since July, while Connecticut has actually been about the same at home as they’ve been on the road over that time. Crazily enough, in the five previous matchups, each team has scored exactly 380 points – 76 ppg – which demonstrates just how evenly matched these teams are. I think the lines are too tight here, but I would lean Lynx +2.5 and Under 151.5 here, based on how these teams have played each other this year.
WNBA Best Bet: Leans Minnesota Lynx +2.5, Under 151.5
New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces
It’s do-or-die time for Las Vegas. Head Coach Becky Hammon said in her press conference this week, “Three-peating is hard… especially when the league is pissed off (about their success), and my players are distracted, doing commercials…” This isn’t exactly the sound of a coach who sees the eye of the tiger in her squad, who is looking to defend its title(s). I’ve said on several occasions that I thought the Aces had “championship fatigue,” along with the Kansas City Chiefs and Golden State Warriors, where you get so mentally and emotionally worn down after dominating for multiple years. I think the Liberty are hungry and want to end this series as soon as possible. Vegas is a 3-point home favorite tonight with an Over/Under of 165.5, while TSI projects Aces -1.5 with a total of 163.5. I don’t think much deeper analysis is required here; I think Vegas is mentally exhausted, and New York craves the chance to start its own dynasty.
WNBA Best Bet: New York Liberty ML +135
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