WNBA Best Bets:
We’ve cashed 8 straight WNBA bets and 15 of our last 21. Let’s see if we can continue the heater to close out what’s been a profitable WNBA season. There are five games tonight, so plenty of opportunity to cash some more bets and pad our bankroll as football gets ramped up. Be sure to check out my CFB and NFL bets every Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday right here on VSiN.com.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Here are tonight’s projections:
Dallas Wings vs Seattle Storm
Dallas might have quit on the year. After putting up a decent fight against the Liberty a few nights ago, they absolutely laid down and got smacked last night by the same New York team, losing by 32 as 10-point underdogs. Now, they’re on a back-to-back and playing their third game since Sunday against a Storm team that’s gearing up for a playoff run.
Seattle is now an 8.5-point favorite after opening -6.5, with an Over/Under of 171.5. TSI projects Storm -8, but I think Dallas is a team we should be factoring in recent games much more heavily down the stretch, in which case I’d project Storm -11 here with a total of 177.
Although there appears to be more value on the total, I think that’s contingent on Dallas showing any sign of life here and we’ve seen the total tick up several points already, so I’m not comfortable playing it at 171.5 after 168.5 was available just yesterday. I think laying it with Seattle would be the play but I’d like to give the Wings one more opportunity to show they haven’t quit before full-on fading them down the stretch.
Lean: Storm -8.5
Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics
This game is about as important as it gets for these teams, who are right on the tail of Chicago for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs. Atlanta is a four-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 156.5 after opening as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 158.5.
These teams have played twice this season, splitting the series so far but Washington holds the average score edge, 77-71. TSI projects Dream -1.5 with a total of 155.5. All of my formulas I reference indicate +4 is great value on Washington, so I think I’ll take the Mystics and the points.
Bet: Mystics +4 or better
Minnesota Lynx vs Chicago Sky
We faded Chicago last game against Washington and that was easy money, as the Angel Reese-less Sky got blown out for an easy underdog outright winner for us. Tonight, Minnesota is a 12.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 156.5, while TSI projects Minnesota -7.5 with a total of 157.
Chicago is still fighting for a playoff spot while Minnesota is playing to lock up the Western Conference. I think Minnesota will be happy to get out with a win and get rested for a deep playoff run.
Bet: Sky +12.5
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces
A rematch from earlier this week, Caitlin Clark and the Fever will try to get over the hump against the Aces, led by now-season-scoring-record-holder, A’ja Wilson, who have had the Fever’s number this year, beating them by double digits in each outing. That’s not stopping the market from pricing the Aces -4.5 currently, with an Over/Under of 177.
TSI projects Aces -1.5 with a total of 177, but it’s tough to look past the earlier beatdowns administered in this matchup by the defending champs. Until Clark and the Fever show they can truly compete with Vegas, I’ll have to stay away. I would like an Under, though, so I’ll see if this gets bet up any more, as it has in past meetings, or see if I can snag an early live bet, but these teams have averaged just 165 points per matchup this season.
Lean: Under 178 or better
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
Man, I don’t know what the deal is with Phoenix, but they’ve been so wildly inconsistent this year, particularly on the offensive end, which is so weird considering their plethora of firepower on that side of the court. Their last five games’ rating is three points worse than their season-long, while Connecticut has remained pretty steady throughout the year, albeit doing it a little differently now with Marina Mabrey in the lineup as a sharpshooting playmaker.
Connecticut is a six-point favorite with an Over/Under of 158, while TSI projects Sun -5.5 with a total of 156. These teams have averaged just 146 points per matchup this season in 3 meetings, so adding that on top of the TSI projection has me feeling like this under is probably the best bet on the slate.
Bet: Under 158 (Play to 157)
