WNBA Best Bets:
Even one game slates like last night’s offer a profit opportunity, which we took advantage of, cashing the over in the Fever/Sparks game regardless of which number you got it at. We’ve now hit four of our last five WNBA bets, and the TSI absolute error, even on bets we don’t cash, has been excellent and encouraging. Thursday presents just two games on the slate, but fear not, I do have another bet(s) locked and loaded for you, so keep the momentum going.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Let’s get to tonight’s projections:
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm
It feels like the Liberty haven’t played in forever. Their last game was August 30th, so maybe not forever, but they’ve had a nice week-long break. The Storm are already on their third game of September. New York is a 7.5-point favorite, and the line hasn’t budged. The Over/Under sits at 164.5 and is climbing; however, TSI disagrees with the market on both here, projecting the Liberty as just 6-point favorites with a total of 161. I’m almost certainly going to be betting this Under, but with the total climbing, I’m going to be patient and try to capture the Under at its apex. If you can’t afford the luxury of being patient because, you know, you have a life and can’t stare at an odds screen all day, I’d be comfortable firing at the current number if you have to.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 165 or better
Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics
We’ve already made money on the Mystics this week after they beat the Wings outright as 5-point dogs the other night. We’ve already cashed a Mercury under this week as well. As they say, “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” Back to the well. Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite, and the number is rising, while the Over/Under is 165.5, and I expect it to drop. TSI projects Mercury -2.5 with a total of 164, with formulas projecting as low as 161. The Mercury’s offensive rating has dipped three percentage points over the last five games compared to its season-long rating, while its defense has remained the same; meanwhile, Washington has also had a slight dip in its offensive rating while improving its defense, indicating the market may not have caught up to these teams’ recent output trends.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 165.5 (Play to 165)
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