WNBA Best Bets for Thursday, June 29
New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces -6.5, 173.5
We finally get to see the two superteams go head to head. The Aces are a cohesive, championship-winning team, while the Liberty are still freshly formed. Las Vegas (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) is 7-0 SU at home this season and thus an understandable home favorite in this spot (4-3 ATS at home.) This will also be the Liberty’s second straight road game as they come off their 89-81 win over the Sun.
Both teams are offensive juggernauts. New York (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) is second overall in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, but they sit at just fifth overall in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Aces are first in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, and true shooting percentage all while also ranking second overall in defensive rating.
Clearly, three-point shooting will not be in short supply on either side. In fact, the Liberty attempt the most threes in the league and score 35.7% of their points from deep (first overall). On the defensive side, neither team is particularly strong at guarding the perimeter with the Aces seventh in opponent three-point field goal percentage and the Liberty at ninth. Las Vegas also leads the league in scoring at 92.8 points per game, and both teams rank top five in pace. You can see where this is going. Both of these teams have each had eight overs cash this season. Normally, a total above 170 would be very difficult for me to bet an over on, but frankly, I’m expecting to see fireworks, and hopefully, I won’t have to wait until the 4th of July.
Over 173.5
Indiana Fever -3.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 161.5
Did you know Indiana (5-9 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) is the best team ATS on the road so far this season? They are 6-1-2 ATS on the road. The W universe has truly changed with the Baby Fever now soaring up the power rankings, while the once-great Mercury (2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS) have been getting knocked out of orbit.
On Sunday, Phoenix announced they were parting ways with Vanessa Nygaard and that Nikki Blue has been named interim head coach for the remainder of the 2023 season. Then the Mercury lost at home on Tuesday vs the Wings, 77-62, which was their sixth straight double-digit loss. Sophie Cunningham did not play on Tuesday (back) but is likely to play on Thursday which should provide a nice scoring boost for Phoenix and could also make betting an over more appealing. But this game will also be the Fever’s fourth consecutive road game in eight days.
These teams already played each other on June 11th, and the Fever lost at home, 85-82. The Mercury have only scored more than 80 points three times this season, but they did win two of those times. You can bet the Fever haven’t forgotten about that loss. Since then, they have covered four of their last six games including three straight most recently. Basically, this is a team on the rise versus a team in complete and utter turmoil.
Indiana Fever -3.5
Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm -1.5, 163.5
The Lynx (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS) and the Storm (4-10 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) just played on Tuesday in Minnesota and now take it to Seattle. As I mentioned on Tuesday, both teams are in the bottom third in offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage.
Yet on Tuesday, the Lynx won with a final score of 104-93. Kayla McBride went 4-9 from deep scoring 18 points (after scoring less than seven in each of her last three games.) Diamond Miller also put up 18 points in her first game back since injury, and Napheesa Collier led the pack with 33 points on 52% shooting. Another over isn’t out of the question if the Lynx can keep this up, but there may be some fatigue from both sides after the performance we saw on Tuesday night, which could be amplified by the east-to-west travel. Seattle’s rookie, Jordan Horston, has been one of the most impactful players on the Storm’s roster. She missed Tuesday’s game and is listed as questionable for this game.
The Storm are second to last in opponents’ points in the paint and on Tuesday allowed the Lynx to score 54 of their 104 points in that area. They’ll need to shore up their defense down low if they want to stop the Lynx. Since this game is essentially booked as a toss-up, I’ll be looking live for action to see how the teams look out of the gate. If anything, a first-half under could be in play.
Lean Under 163.5
