We’re off to a solid start for the week with the Mystics/Sun under cashing easily and the Storm/Mercury under also cashing easily on Tuesday, while Chicago blew a second half lead to not even get the cover against the Liberty, bringing us to 2-1 so far this week. Tonight’s slate has just two games, with the Aces visiting the Dallas Wings and the red hot Minnesota Lynx visiting the LA Sparks.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces
The Wings have been all over the place in their first handful of games, which has made TSI look really good at times and really bad at times. I do think, however, that they’ve been much better in their more recent games and I’m not surprised to see some value on them again here against the defending champs; Las Vegas is a 8.5-point favorite on the road with an Over/Under of 169.5, while TSI projects Aces -4 with a total of 178.5. Even removing preseason numbers from the projection I would still make it Aces -3 with a total of 173.5, so the numbers are aligned on both the side and total here. These are the top two offenses in the W, per TSI, and LV has just a middle-tier defensive rating while Dallas is second-to-last on the defensive side of the ball. There should be points.
Bet: Wings/Aces Over 169.5
LA Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx
The Sparks have just been pitiful lately, while the Lynx are the #1 team in my power ratings using on-court data only (no preseason projections). Minnesota is a 7.5-point favorite here with an Over/Under of 159, while TSI projects Minnesota -9.5 with a total of 157.5, and the on-court only formula makes it Lynx -13 with a total of 156 so the formulas are aligned here as well. I think I have more faith in the Lynx destroying the Sparks than I do this game staying under the total, since Minnesota has the #4 offense in the league paired with the #2 defense, while LA is 11th and 8th, respectively, per TSI.
Bet: Lynx -7.5
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