Game 4 Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction:
The Cleveland Guardians find themselves in a must-win Game 4 situation at home against the New York on Friday with a pair of young starting pitchers looking to come up with a big performance.
Gavin Williams gets the start for Cleveland, his first since September 22, and looks to build off of allowing three runs or fewer in six of his last seven regular season starts.
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Williams had some big struggles at home with a 6.55 ERA despite getting nearly 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings at home, and advanced numbers suggest positive regression is coming.
Across all of his starts this season, Williams has a 4.86 ERA with just 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and, despite issuing 3.8 walks per nine innings, has a fielding independent that is more than a point lower than his ERA at 3.67.
Williams is tasked with holding down a Yankees offense who’s nearly five runs per game overall and 5.2 runs per game on the road during the regular season and leads the American League. He has a Cleveland Guardians bullpen helping him that led the league with a 2.57 ERA, with no other bullpen having an ERA better 3.11.
Luis Gil gets the start for the Yankees after posting a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA, but much like Williams, might also be rusty with this being his first start since September 28.
Gil also enters having had command issues even when in rhythm, posting a 4.14 field independent with 10.1 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings.
The Cleveland Guardians’ offense has been far better at home than on the road this season, with nearly 4.7 runs per game at home, ranking 10th in the league, compared to scoring 4.05 runs per game on the road.
While the Yankees entered Game 3 with a 0.77 ERA from the bullpen during the postseason, they supplied a 3.65 ERA during the regular season. Gil’s command issues lend themselves to the Guardians getting runs on the board in Game 4 and avoiding catastrophe in the series.
MLB Pick: Cleveland Guardians +105
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