MLB Best Bets Today September 13:
We only have three weekends of the MLB regular season left, as the playoffs are getting closer and closer by the day. All 30 teams take the field with six games in each league and three interleague series, which should be what we see pretty frequently going forward. Interleague series are great so fans get exposed to players all around the league, but the final few weeks should be all about games that impact the playoff race both ways.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 13:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-112, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
And we’ve got one of them right here between the Dodgers and Braves. I’ve been using DraftKings lines all season because that’s how it started and VSiN was owned by DK way back in March when the year began. A lot of books have the Braves a slight favorite here, so shop around for the best odds that you can find.
I like the Dodgers here, as they send Landon Knack to the hill against Spencer Schwellenbach. While I’ve been a big believer in the Braves when Schwellenbach starts, the last two outings for the rookie have been concerning. He’s allowed eight runs in 10.2 innings to the Phillies and Blue Jays. His start against Toronto was particularly bad with 11 hard-hit balls and four Barrels. He had allowed a total of six Barrels in the second half up to that point.
The biggest metric for me is that he’s had SwStr% marks of 7.3% and 6.9% in those two September outings. He had seven straight starts of 15.7% or higher prior to that. I can’t help but feel like he may be starting to wear down a little bit. He’s worked 97.2 innings at the MLB level and 45 innings in the minors.
Last season, he only threw 65 minor league innings. He was a position player for the most part at Nebraska, except for the 31.2 innings he pitched in 2021. He didn’t play in 2022. This is a massive innings increase for a guy whose arm isn’t used to it at all.
Knack has a 3.00 ERA with a 4.54 FIP, so there are some negative regression signs, due mostly to a high home run rate as a guy that peppers the strike zone. He has 52 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 54 MLB innings. Knack has worked 122 innings this season after throwing 100.1 last season, so a pretty natural progression.
The Dodgers are third in wOBA at .336 over the last 30 days and the Braves are 15th at .306. If we look specifically against right-handed pitching, LA is fifth at .334 and Atlanta is 27th at .291.
LA’s pen is in fine shape after Thursday’s off day, so I like them even more for that reason. Like I said, shop around and try to find this one a few cents better.
Pick: Dodgers -112
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-112, 8.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Brewers and Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field on Friday night in a game that has big implications for both teams. The Diamondbacks are still fighting for a Wild Card spot and seeding. The Brewers are trying to do what they can to get one of the highly-coveted byes in the NL playoffs.
It’ll be Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. Peralta finished the first half with a 4.11 ERA and got a little unlucky to do so with a .299 wOBA against and a 130/36 K/BB ratio over 103 innings of work.
Here in the second half, though, he has a 3.25 ERA over 55.1 innings with a .326 wOBA against and a 49/24 K/BB ratio. He’s given up 11 HR in those 55.1 innings after allowing 14 in 103 in the first half. I think he’s a negative regression candidate in a lot of ways and his second-half 3.25 ERA with a 5.40 FIP seems to back that up. He gets a tough road assignment here against the Snakes, who have been baseball’s best offense since June in a lot of categories.
I also have some major concerns with Rodriguez, who has a 5.83 ERA with a 4.84 FIP in 29.1 innings over just six starts. He’s allowed 13 runs on 19 hits in his last 13.1 innings of work. What’s particularly concerning here for E-Rod is that his Zone% was 52.8% or higher in his first four starts and has been 40.2% and 34.1% in his last two starts. While he’s seen a modest bump in Chase Rate, he now faces a Brewers lineup that has been elite in the plate discipline department this season.
Rodriguez has allowed a 39.4% Hard Hit%, which is above the league average, and an 11.5% Barrel%. He’s allowed at least one Barrel in every start and 12 in total. The Brewers are one of eight teams with a wRC+ of 100 or higher over the last 30 days, so it’s been a decent split for them. They’ve actually gotten unlucky on batted balls with a .242 BABIP, so there’s some positive regression in the picture.
All three primary relievers pitched yesterday for Milwaukee and two, including closer Devin Williams, have worked two of the last three days. The Arizona pen is in better shape, but they also have an ERA over 5 in the last 30 days.
Pick: Brewers/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-110)
