MLB Best Bets Today October 7:
After a day of rest, the AL series are back in the spotlight. The Tigers are a road favorite over the Guardians and the Yankees are a comfy home favorite against the Royals. There are a lot of things to unpack with today’s games, so let’s not waste any time.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 7:
Detroit Tigers (-130, 6) at Cleveland Guardians
4:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
The storylines are rich for this one, as Tarik Skubal gets the call for the Tigers and Matthew Boyd goes for the Guardians. Skubal is going to win the AL Cy Young and was outstanding over six scoreless innings against the Astros in the Wild Card Round. Boyd spent six seasons and change with the Tigers, before going to Seattle and then coming back around again for the 2023 campaign.
Boyd made eight starts covering 39.2 innings and was really effective for Cleveland with a 2.72 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and a 3.29 FIP. He had a top-notch 46/13 K/BB ratio and only gave up four homers. He was extremely efficient with his pitches more often than not and that will be something to follow in this game.
The Guardians bullpen threw 4.1 shutout innings in Game 1 in relief of Tanner Bibee, who did not face Kerry Carpenter a third time. Cade Smith came in with a runner on and got an inning-ending strikeout. We’ll see Guardians manager Stephen Vogt aggressive like that all series and all postseason long, for however long Cleveland is alive. That means we’ll also see it today. Bettors and the books are very well aware, as Boyd’s Outs Recorded prop is Over/Under 11.5. It is heavily juiced to the Over, but if Boyd even sniffs a hint of trouble, Vogt will be hyper-aggressive, especially with a travel day tomorrow.
In the other dugout, A.J. Hinch will let Skubal go as long as he can. He had a 2.39 ERA with a 2.70 xERA and a 2.49 FIP in 31 starts over 192 innings. He struck out six and only walked one out of 23 batters in that Astros start. He also did it over just 88 pitches and is on an extra day of rest here, so he should be ready to go.
Skubal was throwing a bit harder in that playoff start and I would anticipate that he does here as well. Cleveland, like Houston, is really good at avoiding strikeouts, so I’ll be curious to see if Skubal can get Over 5.5 Strikeouts, as the vig implies at -145.
My favorite bet here is Boyd Over 3.5 Hits Allowed at -105. He hasn’t pitched in a MLB game since September 21, so I think we could see a bit of rust out of him. He also had some control issues in his final three starts, so I do wonder if the Tigers are able to get into some advantageous counts.
The only downside here is that I think Vogt will have a very quick hook at the first sign of distress, but I’m not sure Boyd will be very sharp.
Pick: Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-105)
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-155, 7.5)
7:38 p.m. ET (TBS)
Cole Ragans and Carlos Rodon battle it out here, as we actually have four left-handed starters across the AL playoff games. Ragans was magnificent in KC’s 1-0 win to open up the Wild Card Round against the Orioles, as he went six highly efficient innings. He struck out eight and didn’t walk anybody over 22 batters faced. Ragans had some control issues late in the season, but those were nowhere to be found in that outing.
It was an up-and-down season for Rodon, who had a 3.96 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 4.39 FIP when all was said and done. More importantly, he stayed healthy and threw 175 innings for the Yankees after throwing just 64.1 last season. He finished on a real high note with a 2.20 ERA over his final 28.2 innings of work in the month of September, holding opposing batters to a .202/.278/.394 slash with a .295 wOBA.
He did give up 31 homers this season and that is something to keep in mind here in this outing, as he allowed 11 in 68 innings in the second half. He gave up 20 in 107 innings in the first half. He also gave up 13 HR the first time through the order, so that may be where you want to look to capitalize on the Royals. He had a 4.04 ERA over 288 batters faced the first time through. He also struggled the third time through, as most guys do, so Aaron Boone will have to have his finger on the trigger here.
The Royals also tied for the fewest HR hit in the month of September and scored all of three runs against the Orioles in the two-game sweep last round. Of course, they also exploded for five runs last game, though two were unearned. As much as I like Ragans and think the Royals are very live today, the offense is definitely concerning.
Closest thing I have to a play today would be Royals 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 at -115. Rodon is on a long layoff and we’ve seen some guys struggle in that role this postseason and in the past. But, I just can’t get there with how poor the offense has been for a while.
