MLB Best Bets Today August 6:
Everybody takes the field on Tuesday and we have nothing but night games on the MLB card. A few games are threatened by bad weather, with Cleveland and New York the most likely spots to watch. Six games are on the slate in each league and then there are also three interleague matchups, including Game 2 of what looks to be a potentially wild series in Cleveland.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 6:
San Francisco Giants (-120, 9) at Washington Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET
The Giants and Nationals started up their series yesterday and San Francisco came away with a 4-1 win to send Washington to a ninth loss in 13 games. Tonight’s pitching matchup features Hayden Birdsong and MacKenzie Gore, as Birdsong pitches after having his turn skipped in the rotation. The youngster didn’t have a turn skipped due to bad performance – the opposite in fact, as he’s got a 2.97 ERA with a 4.06 FIP in six starts to begin his MLB career.
The Giants just had other plans, which got changed when Alex Cobb was traded to Cleveland. So, Birdsong will step in now, having allowed no more than two runs over each of his last five starts and no more than three runs in any MLB start this season. He reminds me of Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves in that he’s also found some more strikeout upside as he’s gotten more comfortable. I guess it was Colorado, but he’s got 20 strikeouts in his last 11 innings with two starts after the All-Star Break.
Birdsong’s fastball grades poorly by Stuff+, but his other three pitches all have really positive grades. In his last two starts against the Rockies, he had his lowest fastball percentage, opting for more curveballs, sliders, and changeups. Hopefully that is a trend that will continue here today, as the Giants likely had some discussions with him during the Break.
On the other side, there are a lot more red flags with Gore. He’s up to a 4.54 ERA for the season now in 111 innings of work. His 3.40 FIP and 3.95 xFIP do suggest some positive regression, but Gore has a 7.25 ERA over his last eight starts with a 31/21 K/BB ratio in 36 innings. He’s allowed at least three runs in all but one start, including a two-inning effort against the Reds in his first start out of the Break.
Gore just had his lowest fastball velo of the season against the Diamondbacks at 94.8 mph. His two lowest starts otherwise? His starts on July 20 and July 26. Since July 1, Gore has allowed a 48.2% Hard Hit%. He also had a 4.4% SwStr% in his July 26 start against the Cardinals and a 5.1% SwStr% in his July 31 start against the Diamondbacks.
Everything is going in the opposite direction for him right now, whereas I think Birdsong is a true up-and-comer. I like the Giants bullpen as well, which comes in with a 3.24 ERA and a 3.83 FIP in the second half. The Nationals, meanwhile, have had some issues with a 5.86 ERA and a 4.69 FIP.
Pick: Giants -120
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (-130, 8.5)
7:20 p.m. ET
The Braves and Brewers just played last week in Milwaukee, but have now changed venues to play down at Truist Park. While it isn’t a rematch between Colin Rea and Bryce Elder, the two did pitch in last week’s series, with Rea going on the 29th and Elder going on the 30th. Both guys pitched well, as Rea allowed two solo homers and one additional hit over 5.1 innings and Elder gave up one run on five hits over 6.1 innings.
I don’t think that should be the baseline for either of these guys and I think we’re in for some runs tonight on a balmy night in Atlanta with high temps and humid conditions. Rea is a major regression candidate. He has a 3.59 ERA with a 4.45 FIP and a 4.92 xERA in his 115.1 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy running a 78.8% LOB%. His contact management numbers are below average with a 41.1% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel%. The Braves actually had three Barrels and a 46.2% HH% in that last start, but Rea worked around it.
I’m not sure he’ll be so lucky here. Rea’s ERA is 0.2 runs lower on the road, but his wOBA against is 50 points higher. So, I’m not really buying those splits. He has a 56/15 K/BB ratio at home, but a 34/20 K/BB ratio on the road, where his OBP against is 75 points higher. He just has an 81.2% LOB% on the road and so he’s been able to dance around it.
Elder has a 5.67 ERA with a 4.23 FIP this season over 46 innings at the big league level. He had a 4.14 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 10 starts in the minors. Elder had a 3.81 ERA last season at the MLB level over 31 starts and 174.2 innings, but a 4.61 xERA and a 4.42 FIP. He’s an average Major League pitcher at best and now runs into a lineup for the second straight time.
The 1st 5 vig on Over 4.5 is a little high at -135, plus I think we can get some more offense off of each guy when the lineups turn over for a third time, given the recent proximity of facing these respective teams.
Pick: Brewers/Braves Over 8.5 (-122)
Minnesota Twins (-112, 6) at Chicago Cubs
8:05 p.m. ET
Pablo Lopez and Shota Imanaga are the listed starters here in a game with the first total of 6 I can ever remember for a game in August. The Windy City is expected to live up to its name today with some stiff breezes blowing in and we even saw some shops open this one at 5.5.
We do have two good pitchers here in Lopez and Imanaga, but I do prefer one slightly over the other and will also trust the better team and the better bullpen. Lopez is a huge positive regression candidate with a 4.65 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, and 3.43 xERA. His K% is solid up at 27.8% and he’s got just a 5.5% BB%. All the peripherals look good for Lopez, but he’s had a bit of a home run problem. Well, with tonight’s wind, I don’t think that’ll be a big deal.
Imanaga is having an awesome first season with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.44 FIP. He has allowed seven runs on 16 hits in his last 12.1 innings, so he might be hitting a little bit of a dead period. The MLB workload is a bit different, as he’s made 20 starts this season. He had 24 starts last year in Japan, 24 in 2022, 25 in 2021 and 25 in 2019. The MLB workload is more stressful.
This will be the first time this season that Imanaga has made consecutive starts on four days rest. In Japan, you typically pitch once per week, as there is more rest built in with the schedule. I think this could be tough for him, especially struggling on four days rest last time out.
Add in a better Twins bullpen in my opinion for what is projected to be a low-scoring game and I like Minnesota here over the Cubs.
Pick: Twins -112
