Welcome to my biweekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
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First Five Best Bets
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Zack Wheeler vs Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez gets the start for Cincinnati after coming out of the bullpen in his last two appearances, and the Reds are hoping he keeps his recent form today.
Martinez pitched a combined 7.0 innings in his last two outings, allowed just 5 hits with no walks and 5 strikeouts. Two appearances are not a sample size worth running to the window for, but those numbers are more in line with his underlying metrics. Martinez might sport a 4.76 ERA for the season, but his 2.98 FIP would indicate he is pitching better than what that ERA would tell us.
One of the biggest issues for Martinez is the luck on balls in play. Despite a hard hit rate of 33.9% and a barrel rate of 5.4% – both above average figures according to Baseball Savant – opponents are batting .327 on balls in play. It is not an astronomical rate, but it is still below average. It probably doesn’t help that Cincinnati is a lesser defensive team – 26th in defensive runs saved – but that figure should even out.
Martinez’s other metrics are pretty stellar. He ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers in chase rate (36.2%) and the 93rd in percentile in walk rate (2.7%). Philadelphia is a respected lineup, but it comes into this contest 20th in wRC+ (98) and it is slightly worse in that category away from home (90).
On the other side, we get Zack Wheeler who has been absolutely stellar.
In 31.1 innings of work, Wheeler has posted a 2.30 ERA and a 2.42 FIP. He ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in every one but two of the statistical categories tracked by Baseball Savant. He faced this Reds lineup three weeks ago and scattered 4 hits across 6.0 innings while striking out 10 hitters.
While 10 strikeouts will be a tough number to achieve once more, Wheeler should have success once again in this matchup. Cincinnati is 21st in wRC+ (93) and 15th in wOBA (.315). The Reds strikeout at a high rate (25.9%) and that works in favor of a pitcher like Wheeler who is in the 75th percentile in whiff rate (30.3%) and the 85th percentile in strikeout rate (30.2%).
This gets us to the under on the first five today at Great American Ballpark. The market opened at 8.5 for the game, and the initial move removed the hook from the total. Martinez is a pitcher with underlying metrics that bode well for future success. Wheeler is a great pitcher with a profile that matches up well against this Reds lineup.
Play: F5 UNDER 4 (-115)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Luis Castillo vs Andrew Heaney
The first three starts of the season for Luis Castillo did not go as expected, but the Mariners’ ace is starting to round into form. In his last two starts Castillo has a 1.38 ERA and 1.62 FIP. He’s allowed 2 earned runs over 13 innings of work and struck out 18 hitters. Those performances are much more in line with his underlying metrics for the season (2.53 FIP).
Castillo has been tagged for some hard contact this season. He ranks in the 61st percentile of pitchers in hard hit rate (36.6%) and the 59th percentile in barrel rate (6.1%). But, it is hard to ignore the success he is having in other aspects of his game. Castillo is in the 83rd percentile or higher in strikeout rate (29.3%), chase rate (33.5%) and walk rate (4.1%). Those are all statistics which show a pitcher performing better than his 4.40 ERA says.
Andrew Heaney opposes Castillo today, and there is not much of a positive spin to put on his numbers. Heaney has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.80 FIP through four starts this season. The Heandog has never been a fireballer, but his fastball velocity (90.9) is extremely low. Opposing hitters are generating hard contact (40.4%) and barrels (9.6%) at a very high rate. He is also struggling to force swings and misses, as he ranks in 47th percentile in whiff rate (24.9%) and the 30th percentile in strikeout rate (19.0%).
Seattle has not hit well against left-handed pitching this season – it ranks 19th in wRC+ (95) – but Heaney’s below average metrics should raise the floor for this lineup. Couple that with the buy signs on Castillo who has shown improvement, and it leads to a play on Seattle in the first five today.
Play: Mariners F5 -0.5 (+110)
