Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
(951) PHILADELPHIA (29-13) at (952) NY METS (19-21)
Trend: PHI is 2-10 (-9.23 units) in L12 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nol
Trend: Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Trend: NYM an UNDERPRICED underdog today (+33 points off)
Systems Match: PLAY NY METS (+124 vs PHI)
(969) CLEVELAND (26-16) at (970) TEXAS (22-21)
Trend: Losing Streak Betting System #6: Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 145-122 run (+47.48 units, ROI: 17.8%).
Trend: Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent (ROI of 6.2% since 2018)
Systems Match: PLAY TEXAS (-118 vs CLE)
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 23-6 (79.3%) 14.15 units, ROI: 48.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/14 at Minnesota
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 at MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-166 vs TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (-118 vs TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-290 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON GAME 1 AND 2, DETROIT, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: COL-SD, KC-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: STL-LAA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs. OAK), FADE SEATTLE (-155 vs. KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): SAN DIEGO RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: NY METS, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, DETROIT, ST LOUIS, WASHINGTON (BOTH GAMES)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are 24-12 for -0.87 units and an ROI of -2.4%. However, the ROI dropped 38% over the past 32 days.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs CHC), FADE SAN DIEGO (-290 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 21-13 since opening day 2024 and has lost -6.76 units, an ROI of -19.9%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 92-108 record, for -2.62 units.. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+124 vs. PHI), CLEVELAND (-102 at TEX), OAKLAND (+164 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 32-42 for -0.81 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 18-24 for -7.82 units. The three-game teams are 25-27 for +0.64 units. The three-game angle was 11-14 for -2.86 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs OAK)
3+ games – FADE COLORADO (+235 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 328-302 (52.1%) for +38.94 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-118 vs CLE)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1499-1401 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.88 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 at MIN), HOUSTON (-198 vs OAK), ST LOUIS (-142 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1370-1784 (43.4%) for -179.90 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (-122 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (+164 at ATL), OAKLAND (+164 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+130 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3023-2646 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -398.25 units and a ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE, ARIZONA
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 851-732 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +21.70 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-166 vs. TOR), TEXAS (-118 vs. CLE), SAN DIEGO (-290 vs. COL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 145-122 run (+47.48 units, ROI: 17.8%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-118 vs CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 112-107 (+22.15 units, ROI: 10.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-118 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 49-41 (+10.83 units, ROI: 12%) in their last 90 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+235 at SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 124-89 (+19.68 units, ROI: 9.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+235 at SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 19-45 (-9.36 units, ROI: -14.6%) in their last 64 tries.
System Matches: FADE COLORADO (+235 at SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +124 (+33 diff), COLORADO +235 (+65 diff), OAKLAND +164 (+20 diff), MIAMI +154 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -118 (+26 diff), SEATTLE -155 (+19 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-ATL OVER 8 (+0.7), CIN-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), WSH-CWS UNDER 8.5 GAME 1 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (29-13) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (19-21)
Trend: PHI is good vs. RH starters (19-6, +9.68 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-148 at NYM)
(953) CHICAGO-NL (24-18) at (954) ATLANTA (25-13)
Trend: ATL trending Under at night (6-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(955) PITTSBURGH (19-23) at (956) MILWAUKEE (24-17)
Trend: PIT not good vs. RH starters (10-18, -10.41 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+140 at MIL)
(957) CINCINNATI (17-24) at (958) ARIZONA (20-22)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. RH starters (7-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(959) COLORADO (13-28) at (960) SAN DIEGO (22-22)
Trend: COL bad on the road (4-16, -9.22 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+235 at SD)
(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (28-15) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (19-24)
Trend: SF not as good at night (8-17, -13.08 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+142 vs LAD)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (27-15) at (968) MINNESOTA (24-16)
Trend: MIN solid bet vs. LH starters (7-3, +4.00 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+102 vs NYY)
(969) CLEVELAND (26-16) at (970) TEXAS (22-21)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (5-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(971) OAKLAND (19-24) at (972) HOUSTON (16-25)
Trend: OAK trending Over vs. RH starters (18-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(973) KANSAS CITY (25-18) at (974) SEATTLE (23-19)
Trend: SEA more Under at night (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(975) MIAMI (11-32) at (976) DETROIT (21-20)
Trend: DET decent vs. LH starters (6-2, +4.42 units)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-185 vs MIA)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (29-13) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (19-21)
Trend: PHI is 2-10 (-9.23 units) in the last 12 vs. NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-148 at NYM)
(959) COLORADO (13-28) at (960) SAN DIEGO (22-22)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 2-12 (-8.86 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+235 at SD)
(963) TORONTO (19-22) at (964) BALTIMORE (26-14)
Trend: TOR is 10-5 (+4.50 units) vs. AL East opponents with starter Chris Bassitt
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+140 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 10-1 (+9.6 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-166 vs TOR)
Trend: BAL is 3-10 (-8.51 units) in Home Divisional starts by Kyle Bradish
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-166 vs TOR)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (27-15) at (968) MINNESOTA (24-16)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 8-14 (-9.32 units) in the last 22 starts with NYY
System Match: CONSIDER FADING NY YANKEES (-122 at MIN)
(977) WASHINGTON (19-20) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (12-29) (DH Game #2)
Trend: CWS is 16-6 (+10.40 units) in the -115 to +110 line range for starter Erick Fedde
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX in GAME 2 (-108 vs WSH)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Mon 5/13-Thu 5/16
Trend: Oakland is 4-17 (19%, -8.05 units) in its last 21 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -38.3%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+164 at HOU)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 23-6 (79.3%) 14.15 units, ROI: 48.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/14 at Minnesota
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 at MIN)
