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MLB value plays for Thursday, June 15
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Rockies vs. Braves (-260). Greg’s Line: Rockies +189.
The Braves are giving 20-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver his second career start after he began the season with Rome in single A ball. Smith-Shawver is also backed by a bullpen used heavily in the doubleheader with the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has always pitched better on the road throughout his career with a 4.62 ERA at home compared to a 3.85 on the road.
Rays (-1.5, -120) vs. Athletics. Greg’s Run Line: Rays -1.5, -158.
The Athletics’ win streak is done, and now they have to rely on Paul Blackburn, who had an 8.46 ERA at home last season, to build a new one. Blackburn is backed by the league’s worst bullpen in ERA and a lineup that’s batting .208 at home, 20 points worse than other home batting averages in the league. Rays starter Taj Bradley has a 1.71 ERA in his road starts with 12.1 strikeouts to 2.8 walks per nine innings while the Rays lineup is second in the league in runs per game.
Guardians vs. Padres (-145). Greg’s Line: Guardians +114.
The Padres give Ryan Weathers the start. Weathers has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, owning an ERA of 4.93 and a 5.26 fielding independent with 5.9 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. While the Guardians’ offense is last in the league in home runs, they’ve gotten good starts out of Logan Allen, who has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts while being backed up by a bullpen that is second in the league in ERA.
