Today the work week ends with a loaded MLB slate featuring 14-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees (-115, 7.5)
The Braves (41-31) just swept the Tigers, winning Wednesday’s series finale 7-0 as -130 home favorites. On the flip side, the Yankees (51-26) just dropped two of three against the Orioles, losing 17-5 yesterday as -165 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Chris Sale (9-2, 2.98 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon (9-3, 3.28 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a -105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Yankees to bounce back after a blowout loss on Thursday, steaming New York from a -105 dog to a -115 favorite. In other words, the Yankees are taking in sharp “dog to favorite” line movement. New York is receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a steam move in their favor. The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .252 with 113 homers and 389 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .246 with only 79 homers and 320 runs scored. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 241-152 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Yankees are 40-20 (67%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite, the 4th-best chalk team in MLB. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Sale has a 6.00 ERA in three June starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. Rodon has a 2.30 ERA at home compared to 3.86 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 9)
The Blue Jays (35-39) just got swept by the Red Sox, losing Wednesday’s series finale 7-3 as -135 home favorites. Conversely, the Guardians (46-26) just took two of three against the Mariners, winning 6-3 yesterday as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Blue Jays go with righty Yariel Rodriguez (0-1, 4.11 ERA) and the Guardians tap fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (2-6, 5.80 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +100 home dog. Wiseguys have laid the short chalk with the Guardians at home, driving Cleveland up from -120 to -130. The Guardians are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Cleveland has the edge offensively, hitting .244 with 82 homers and 360 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .233 with only 60 homers and 287 runs scored. The Guardians are 32-14 (70%) with a 22% ROI as a favorite this season, including 21-7 (75%) with a 29% ROI as a home favorite, both the best chalk records in MLB. Toronto is 17-20 on the road. Cleveland is 23-9 at home. The Guardians have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Cleveland is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .278 with a 3.52 ERA. Toronto is 4-6 hitting .231 with a 3.64 ERA. The Guardians have the top bullpen in MLB (2.36 ERA). The Blue Jays have the 5th-worst bullpen (4.66).
7:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-115, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
The Red Sox (40-35) have won seven of their last eight games and just swept the Blue Jays, winning Wednesday’s series finale 7-3 as +120 road dogs. On the other hand, the Reds (35-39) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing Wednesday’s series finale 1-0 as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox turn to righty Kutter Crawford (3-6, 3.54 ERA) and the Reds rebuttal with lefty Andrew Abbott (5-6, 3.42 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and Boston a -105 road dog. We’ve seen this line completely flip toward Boston, driving the Red Sox from a -105 dog to a -115 favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement hammer the Red Sox. Boston is receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a steam move in their favor. The Red Sox have the better offense, hitting .254 with 81 homers and 350 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .225 with 72 homers and 309 runs scored. When both teams have the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 497-308 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 109-86 (56%) with a 4% ROI this season. Boston is 22-15 on the road. Cincinnati is 18-19 at home. Crawford has a 2.62 ERA on the road compared to 4.15 at home. The Red Sox are hitting .259 against lefties this season, 10th-best in MLB.
