Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-190, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
The Padres (65-52) took last night’s series opener 6-2 in extra innings, cashing as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres hand the ball to righty Matt Waldron (7-9, 3.79 ERA) and the Marlins (43-74) turn to fellow righty Roddery Munoz (2-6, 5.68 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -165 road favorite and Miami a +150 home dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -165 to -190. The Padres are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” support from both Pros and Joes in addition to 25-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 106-68 (61%) with a 4% ROI. Non-division road favorites off a win are 135-97 (58%) with a 3% ROI. The Padres have the better bats, hitting .265 with 134 homers and 554 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting just .237 with 105 homers and 425 runs scored. San Diego is 35-23 on the road. Miami is 23-38 at home. Waldron has a 3.11 ERA on the road compared to 4.52 at home. Munoz has a 6.82 ERA at home compared to 4.74 on the road. The Padres are 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .281 with a 3.42 ERA. The Marlins are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .228 with a 4.70 ERA.
7:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 8)
The Brewers (66-49) won last night’s series opener 8-3, cruising as -155 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (56-60) start righty Nick Martinez (6-5, 3.43 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow righty Tobias Myers (6-5, 3.02 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Brewers at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -150. The Brewers are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 106-68 (61%) with a 4% ROI. The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Milwaukee has the superior offense, hitting .258 with 566 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .231 with 520 runs scored. The Reds are 28-29 on the road. The Brewers are 32-21 at home. Milwaukee is 5-2 against Cincinnati this season. The Brewers are 9-5 in Myers’ last 14 starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts. Milwaukee is hitting .299 with an ERA of 4.09 over their last ten games. Cincinnati is hitting .254 with a 5.36 ERA over their last ten games. The Brewers are 23-11 (68%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite against teams with a below .500 record.
8:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 8.5)
This is the third game of a four-game series. The Phillies (69-47) won the opener 6-4, cashing as +110 road dogs. Then the Diamondbacks (64-53) bounced back with a 3-2 walkoff win last night, cashing as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies turn to righty Aaron Nola (11-5, 3.54 ERA) and the Diamondbacks counter with fellow right Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a short -110 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to grab the Phillies at a coin-flip dog price. However, despite 66% of moneyline bets taking the Phillies we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Diamondbacks -110 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Snakes, with wiseguys fading the trendy dog Phillies and instead laying the chalk with the contrarian favorite Diamondbacks. Saturday non-division favorites with a winning record are 74-43 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. Arizona is 36-21 (63%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the 4th best chalk team in MLB. The Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Gallen’s last eight starts. He has a 3.28 ERA at home compared to 4.40 on the road. Arizona is 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .297 with a 4.10 ERA. Philadelphia is 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .259 with a 4.39 ERA.
