Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-160, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates (58-64) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-3 as -120 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as +125 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mariners (63-61) hand the ball to righty George Kirby (8-9, 3.42 ERA) and the Pirates counter with fellow righty Jake Woodford (0-4, 5.87 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -150 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +135 home dog. Sharps are banking on the Mariners to avoid the sweep and have steamed Seattle up from -150 to -160. The Mariners are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars, indicating “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 143-99 (59%) with a 3% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 56-27 (67%) with a 12% ROI. Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win.
2:20 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs (-190, 7)
The Cubs (61-63) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 6-5 as -130 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-2 as -165 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays (57-66) start righty Bowden Francis (5-3, 4.92 ERA) and the Cubs send out lefty Shota Imanaga (9-2, 3.16 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -175 home favorite and Toronto a +160 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down on the Cubs to complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -175 to -190. The Cubs are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy public and sharp agreement in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their direction. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 229-158 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is favored to win. The Blue Jays are 28-35 on the road. The Cubs are 34-27 at home. Chicago is 4-1 in Imanaga’s last five starts. Toronto is hitting .231 against lefties, ranking 27th in MLB.
4:07 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-175, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Angels (53-70) took the opener 3-2, cashing as +135 home dogs. Then the Braves (65-58) bounced back with an 11-3 win yesterday, cruising as -240 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Braves turn to righty Charlie Morton (6-7, 4.40 ERA) and the Angels go with fellow righty Jack Kochanowicz (1-2, 7.98 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -155 road favorite and Los Angeles a +140 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -155 to -175. The Braves are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI. Non-division road favorites off a win are 146-106 (58%) with a 3% ROI. The Braves have the better bats, hitting .241 with 162 homers and 534 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .236 with 123 homers and 492 runs scored. Atlanta is 33-32 on the road. Los Angeles is 27-39 at home.
