Today we wrap up the weekend and kick off the month of September with a 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games today.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians (-150, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Guardians (77-59) won the opener 10-8, taking care of business as -145 home favorites. Then the Pirates (63-72) bounced back with a 3-0 win yesterday, cashing as +175 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Mitch Keller (11-8, 3.84 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Alex Cobb (1-1, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -140 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +125 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying modest home chalk, steaming Cleveland up from -140 to -150. The Guardians are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 444-298 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 88-51 (63%) with a 4% ROI. The Guardians are 55-27 (67%) with an 18% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Cleveland has the better offense, hitting 154 homers and scoring 618 runs compared to Pittsburgh hitting 134 homers and scoring 571 runs. The Guardians have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Pirates are 31-36 on the road. The Guardians are 42-25 at home. Keller posted a 6.75 ERA in five August starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 24 innings pitched.
2:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-175, 7.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Mets (72-64) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-1 as -220 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-3 as -200 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mets start lefty Sean Manaea (10-5, 3.51 ERA) and the White Sox (31-106) go with fellow southpaw Garrett Crochet (6-9, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -165 road favorite and Chicago a +150 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Mets to complete the sweep, driving New York up from -165 to -175. The Mets are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, evidence of heavy public and sharp support in addition to a 10-cent line move in their direction. Non-division road favorites off a win are 164-115 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Mets have a big edge at the plate, hitting .249 with 174 homers and 649 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .220 with only 109 homers and 420 runs scored. New York is 37-31 on the road. Chicago is 18-53 at home, the worst home record in MLB. The Mets are hitting .257 against lefties this season, ranking 8th. The White Sox are hitting .225 against lefties, ranking 29th. The Mets are 10-2 in Manaea’s last 12 starts. Crochet posted a 6.91 ERA in five August starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched.
4:07 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-170, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Mariners (69-67) won the opener 9-5, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. Then the Angels (58-80) clawed back with a 5-4 win yesterday, cashing as +140 home dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, the Mariners send out righty Bryce Miller (10-7, 3.23 ERA) and the Angels go with righty Caden Dana, who is making his MLB debut. This line opened with Seattle listed as a -155 road favorite and Los Angeles a +140 home dog. Sharps are looking to fade the Angels’ rookie starter making his debut and have gotten down hard on the Mariners, steaming Seattle up from -155 to -170. The Mariners are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 156-106 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more against an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 58-27 (68%) with a 13% ROI. Miller posted a 2.22 ERA in five August starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched. Seattle is hitting .231 with a 3.98 ERA over their last ten games. Los Angeles is hitting .177 with a 4.45 ERA over their last ten games. Dana is a 20-year-old former 11th round draft pick. He went 9-7 with a 2.52 ERA in AA Rocket City and is skipping AAA to make his first career start.
