Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:50 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5)
The Red Sox (25-24) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 5-0 as +105 road dogs and then winning again Tuesday night 5-2 as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox tap righty Brayan Bello (4-2, 3.96 ERA) and the Rays (25-25) rebuttal with fellow righty Ryan Pepiot (3-2, 3.68 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and Boston a +105 road dog. Wiseguys are banking on the Rays to avoid the sweep and have laid the short chalk, steaming Tampa Bay up from -115 to -130. The Rays are receiving 51% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss against an opponent off a win are 155-97 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more against an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 77-42 (65%) with a 5% ROI. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8 to 7.5. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites are 144-89 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Bello has a 6.52 ERA in two May starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.87 ERA at home but a 4.79 ERA on the road.
7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-160, 8)
The Mariners (27-22) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as +120 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-3 as +135 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners start righty Bryce Miller (3-4, 3.08 ERA) and the Yankees (33-17) trot out lefty Nestor Cortes (2-4, 3.56 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -145 home favorite and Seattle a +130 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Yankees to get back on track, steaming New York up from -145 to -160. The Yankees are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, signaling a heavy one-way dose of Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .256 with 69 homers and 240 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .229 with 56 homers and 188 runs scored. Favorites off a loss who have a winning record are 94-55 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. Nic Lentz, the home plate umpire, is 59% to the home team historically. Miller has a 5.19 ERA in three May starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched. He has a 4.03 ERA on the road compared to 2.37 at home. Meanwhile, Cortes has a 2.89 ERA in three May starts, giving up only 6 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. He has a 1.27 ERA at home compared to 6.75 on the road. Seattle is only hitting .228 against lefties this season, ranking 21st in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics (-140, 8)
The Athletics (20-30) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4, taking care of business as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Rockies (15-32) hand the ball to lefty Austin Gomber (1-2, 3.02 ERA) and the Athletics counter with righty Mitch Spence (3-2, 3.90 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -125 home favorite and Colorado a +110 road dog. The public sees two bad teams and doesn’t know which way to go. However, despite the moneyline bets being split down the middle 50/50 we’ve seen Oakland move from -125 to -140. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, based on the 15-cent move toward Oakland we can reasonably infer that pros have laid the chalk with the modest home favorite. Home Interleague favorites off a win, like the Athletics here, are 38-21 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season. Oakland also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Colorado is 6-20 on the road this season, the second worst road team in MLB ahead of only the White Sox (5-20). Oakland has the far better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 3.69 compared to 4.88 for Colorado. The Athletics are 5-1 (83%) as a favorite this season.
