NFL First TD Scorer
We welcome 13 NFL games with open arms in Week 12. There are some very compelling matchups on the whole, but we’re looking at the First Touchdown Scorer market here, which could be far more compelling than the game. There are some not-so-good teams that are doing okay in this department and some good teams that are not.
Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
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QB: 28 (3)
RB: 129 (9)
WR: 117 (9)
TE: 31 (4)
D/ST: 14 (0)
No TD: 23 (3)
A pretty similar distribution to what we’ve seen most weeks. We did have five teams fail to score a TD in Week 10, so this past week was an upgrade in that department.
We added quite a few names to the “3 TD Club” this week. Here are all the guys with three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 7 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 6 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 6 | 5 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 5 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 5 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 4 | 3 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 3 | 3 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 3 | 0 |
In terms of some other notable quirks or results:
- The Ravens scored on their first possession in four of their first five games this season. They have not done it in six straight games.
- Joe Mixon has scored the first TD for the Texans in five straight games.
- The Dolphins have scored the game’s first TD in all five games since their Week 6 bye. They did not score the first TD in any game before that.
- The Panthers have had the first TD in five of their last six games.
- The Browns haven’t scored the game’s first TD since Week 4 against the Raiders; they scored first in three of the first four games and on their first possession in all three.
- The Eagles have scored the first TD in 7/10 games, but have not scored on their first possession yet.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Vikings | 8/10 (80%) |
| Colts | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Cardinals | 7/10 (70%) |
| Chargers | 7/10 (70%) |
| Eagles | 7/10 (70%) |
| Lions | 7/10 (70%) |
| Packers | 7/10 (70%) |
| Bengals | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Patriots | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Bucs | 6/10 (60%) |
| Panthers | 6/10 (60%) |
| Titans | 6/10 (60%) |
| Bills | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Falcons | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Texans | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| 49ers | 5/10 (50%) |
| Dolphins | 5/10 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 5/10 (50%) |
| Broncos | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Raiders | 4/10 (40%) |
| Steelers | 4/10 (40%) |
| Commanders | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Saints | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Bears | 3/10 (30%) |
| Browns | 3/10 (30%) |
| Chiefs | 3/10 (30%) |
| Cowboys | 3/10 (30%) |
| Jaguars | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Jets | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Giants | 1/10 (10%) |
| Rams | 1/10 (10%) |
Three of last week’s four teams on a bye were at 60% or higher. This week’s six teams on a bye are the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets, and Jaguars. The Bengals are the only team at 60% or better.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies.
Let’s get to the Week 12 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
As mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’m going to be publishing this on Thursday because DK is getting slower about posting the touchdown market odds and I want to make sure as many games are available as possible.
NFL Week 12 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Steelers (40%) at Browns (30%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Vikings (80%) at Bears (30%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Patriots (63.6%) at Dolphins (50%)
Buccaneers (60%) at Giants (10%)
Cowboys (30%) at Commanders (36.4%)
Chiefs (30%) at Panthers (60%)
Titans (60%) at Texans (54.5%)
Broncos (45.5%) at Raiders (40%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
49ers (50%) at Packers (70%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Cardinals (70%) at Seahawks (50%)
Eagles (70%) at Rams (10%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Ravens (81.8%) at Chargers (70%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 12 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Minnesota Vikings: Cam Akers +1300, Jordan Addison +1300
The Vikings have been terrific in this department and the Bears have not. While the Chicago offense looked a lot better last week, the first two drives against the Packers resulted in a 53-yard FG and a punt.
Akers is more than 2.5x the price of Jones and Akers already has nine rush attempts and two targets for the Vikings inside the red zone. He actually has three red-zone touchdowns in just five games compared to two for the entire season for Jones. I think Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips view him as a good scoring option, which is why they acquired him from the Rams.
Addison had the first TD for the Vikings last week and now has three of them since Justin Jefferson’s last first team TD, which came back in Week 3. I will admit that it concerns me a bit that Jefferson has 14 red-zone targets and Addison only has four, but the Vikings have proven to be capable of scoring from outside the 20 at a pretty high rate.
Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard +700, Jalen Coker +2200, Adam Thielen +2200
At these prices, we can take a couple of shots for half-unit or quarter-unit plays on the WR2 and WR3 options like Thielen and Coker. Thielen is expected to return this week after a hamstring injury cost him the majority of the season up to this point. Coker played a season-high 88% of the snaps two weeks ago against the Giants.
I think Dave Canales is looking for guys who can make some plays in space and I think Coker and Thielen are two of those guys. Hubbard at +700 has four first team TDs for the Panthers this season. He hasn’t had one since Week 7, but the Panthers, as mentioned above, have scored first in five of six games and Canales is a really smart offensive dude coming off of the bye.
There are three Chiefs ahead of Hubbard, even though KC has only scored the first TD in three games this season. Sure, we expect them to be angry off of a loss, but they’re not cashing in early in games. The Panthers are.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley (+425), A.J. Brown (+850)
It has been a while since an Eagles WR has scored the team’s first TD. It was Brown in Week 6. But, the Eagles have scored first in seven of 10 games and four of six off the bye. Jalen Hurts actually has three team first TDs in that span, but the Rams have not allowed a rushing TD to a QB yet, so I opted for Barkley at the same price.
I realize that the Rams haven’t had Kupp and Nacua at full strength the whole time, but the Rams are just 1/10 this season and have failed to score first in the last four games, including zero TDs against the Dolphins a couple weeks ago. Both teams are 0/10 scoring on the first possession, but the Eagles are 7/10 for the game and the Rams are 1/10, so that shows the defensive difference between these two.
Note: At time of publish, DraftKings only had an Anytime TD market up for Bucs/Giants. I will update with some Buccaneers thoughts when those are posted.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
