Week 5 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Let’s take a look at my Week 5 NFL best bets.

 

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NY Jets vs. Minnesota (-2.5)

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL) – London, England

Soap operas are typically annoying because many of the characters are egotistical, self-absorbed narcissists who live in a fantasy world. I have not watched a network TV soap opera in several decades, but we have been watching one in the NFL world, and the main character is Aaron Rodgers.

In the past seven seasons, Rodgers has two playoff wins to his credit, one each in 2019 and 2020 with the Packers. He’s now the quarterback of the Jets, who hope to stop a 13-year playoff drought that is the longest active streak in the league. Rodgers, who turns 41 in two months, is racing against Father Time, and Rodgers is not winning the race.

The Jets (2-2) are in the running to win the AFC East, but they are reeling after a horrendous 10-9 loss to the Broncos. While the New York defense did its job, Rodgers appeared old and slow and was sacked five times. He lost to a rookie quarterback who passed for 60 yards on 25 attempts. If Rodgers doesn’t start winning soon, his media cheerleaders will turn on him. It could get ugly.

Rodgers and the Jets are in London, where he fits right in because the Royal Family stages a lame soap opera of their own. I never have been sure what the Royal Family’s purpose is other than to provide dramatic fodder for tabloids and talk shows. I do know Rodgers needs to leave London with a victory over the Vikings to keep the media cheerleaders on his side.

Minnesota, one of two remaining 4-0 teams, is a magnificent story in the making. Sam Darnold, a Jets castoff who’s on his fourth team, is a rejuvenated quarterback. Darnold is playing at a higher level than Rodgers. The Vikings’ coaching staff has been outstanding, unlike the Jets’ clueless crew of coaches led by the Skipper (Robert Saleh) and Gilligan (Nathaniel Hackett).

The lookahead line of Jets -2.5 has flipped to Vikings -2.5. New York’s stock is down in the market for obvious reasons, most notably Rodgers’ poor performance in last week’s dismal loss to Denver. So in the twisted world in which NFL handicappers dwell, the negativity surrounding the Jets is a buy sign, at least for me.

I played this at +2.5 in the Circa Million contest, but my bet is on the Jets +3 (-120) and I’ll play the underdog on a teaser, as well. The line is currently +3 at Ceasars/William Hill sportsbooks.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: New York Jets +3 (-120)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

It’s time to buy another team buried in bad news. Jacksonville, the only 0-4 team in the league, has a coach on the hot seat and a quarterback under heavy criticism for the first time in his career. The Jaguars are suffering from a weak defense and weak play from Trevor Lawrence, an overpaid underachiever who has completed 53.3 percent of passes. I hate betting on the Jaguars and will hate myself if this play loses, but the line has moved from -2.5 to 3 because the home team is desperate and the road ‘dog is wounded. The Colts, who have lost eight straight road games at Jacksonville, are seriously banged up with key injuries on both sides of the ball and will be without running back Jonathan Taylor.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Miami (-1) at New England

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Miami coach Mike McDaniel is no offensive genius. The Dolphins, who have averaged 8.3 points during a three-game losing streak, are stuck with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. The Patriots might be even more hopeless with Jacoby Brissett starting behind a bad offensive line and with few playmakers around him. New England ranks 31st in scoring (13.0), ahead of only the Dolphins, who at least have two playmakers in wideout Tyreek Hill and running back De’Von Achane. The better bet might be Under the total of 36.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Dolphins -1

Dallas at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

A bad Dallas defense that ranks 28th in scoring (26.0 pgg) will be without two stars on the line, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Steelers should be able to run wild behind quarterback Justin Fields and running back Najee Harris. The Cowboys limp along with an important ground game and will rely on quarterback Dak Prescott and wideout CeeDee Lamb to make plays. The Pittsburgh defense knows what’s coming, and the T.J. Watt-led defense ranks fourth in yards allowed and second in scoring (13.3 ppg).

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Steelers -2.5

New Orleans at Kansas City (-5.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

At some point — and maybe this is the point — the Chiefs’ luck will run out. Kansas City (4-0) is barely skating by without running back Isiah Pacheco and injured receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown five interceptions, usually finds ways to close the deal in the fourth quarter, something that has been a problem for Saints quarterback Derek Carr. New Orleans blew late leads in recent losses to the Eagles and Falcons, so it’s a team hungry for a big win. The Saints lead the league in scoring (31.8 ppg) and have the firepower to hang with Mahomes on Monday night.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Saints +5.5

Last week: 2-2-1 against the spread
Season: 8-10-2

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